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Weekly Grain Movement – Which crops are staying ahead of forecasts?

Wheat’s likelihood of keeping up with USDA projections looking slimmer.

Ben Potter

May 15, 2018

2 Min Read
Stewart Sutton/ThinkstockPhotos

For the week ending May 10, corn, soybean and wheat export inspections all landed on the high end or exceeded trade expectations. Even so, the weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts is no cakewalk and may already be out of hand for wheat. 

Corn export inspections last week reached 61.2 million bushels, which was about 19% below the prior week’s total but firmly in the middle of the average trade guess, which ranged between 55 million and 70 million bushels.

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The weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts fell to 50.4 million bushels, while the 2017/18 marketing year-to-date totals continue to drag behind the prior year’s pace, with 1.368 billion versus 1.605 billion at the same point in 2016/17. 

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Eleven countries had at least 1 million bushels in corn export inspections last week. Japan (14.4 million bushels) was the No. 1 destination, followed by Mexico (12.5 million), Taiwan (6.7 million), Vietnam (4.7 million) and Egypt (4.3 million).

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Soybean export inspections last week landed at 25.3 million bushels, a slight improvement over last week’s total of 19.7 million bushels and outpacing the average trade guess, which ranged between 16 million and 23 million bushels. It also bested year-over-year results of 10.5 million bushels.

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The weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts edged slightly lower to 24.7 million bushels. Year-to-date totals for 2017/18 are almost 11% lower than the prior year, with cumulative export inspections of 1.644 billion bushels. 

Egypt was the No. 1 destination for soybean export inspections last week, with 6.1 million bushels. Other top destinations included China (4.7 million), the Netherlands (4.7 million), Mexico (2.5 million) and Indonesia (1.8 million).

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Wheat export inspections last week improved to 14.9 million bushels, versus the prior week’s total of 12.2 million bushels. That total also landed on the high end of the trade guess, which ranged from 9 million to 18 million bushels. 

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Still, the weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts grew once more, to a likely unmanageable 30.9 million bushels. For the 2017/18 marketing year, wheat export inspections have reached 833 million bushels, down about 12% from last year’s pace of 946 million bushels. 

Japan was the No. 1 destination for wheat export inspections last week, with 3.6 million bushels. Other top destinations included Mexico (2.3 million), Yemen (1.9 million) Ecuador (1.3 million) and Ghana (1.2 million).

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About the Author(s)

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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