Corn, soybeans capture modest end-of-week gains

Afternoon market recap: Wheat prices faced another round of moderate cuts on Friday.

Ben Potter, Senior editor

November 1, 2024

5 Min Read
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At a Glance

  • Corn and soybean prices benefited from demand-related technical buying today
  • Wheat prices faced moderate cuts that mostly ranged between 0.5% and 0.75%
  • Plus: What are this week’s “7 ag stories you can’t miss?”

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Grain prices were mixed after an uneven round of technical maneuvering on Friday. Another round of flash sales announced by private exporters this morning helped corn and soybean prices stay in the green. Wheat prices failed to follow suit, incurring moderate losses following a round of technical selling today.

Ample rains will be moving from the Southwest into parts of the Corn Belt, delivering 3” or more to some fields between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts drier-than-normal conditions building across the northern U.S. between November 8 and November 14, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the entire country during this time.

On Wall St., the Dow climbed 320 points higher in afternoon trading to 42,084, with Amazon and Intel among the individual strong performances today. Energy futures were mixed, with crude oil up more than 0.25% this afternoon to stay above $69 per barrel. Diesel faced fractional cuts, with gasoline down around 0.25%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.

On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+5,000) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-3,000) and CBOT wheat (-1,500). Funds were roughly even when trading corn and soybean contracts yesterday.

Corn

Corn prices trended moderately higher on Friday after a massive sale to Mexico prompted some additional technical buying today. December futures added 4 cents to $4.1475, with March futures up 2.75 cents to $4.2875.

Corn basis bids were steady to firm after rising 2 to 14 cents across eight Midwestern locations on Friday.

Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 30.8 million bushels of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2024/25 marketing year, which began September 1.

“For many producers, the time is now to discuss leases with landowners,” according to Mike Downey, farm business consultant with Uncommon Farms. However, current trends in farm leasing can create challenges due to several factors, including strong demand for land access, a cash rent “lag effect,” market awareness (or lack thereof) and more. Downey digs into the details in his latest More than Dirt column – click here to get started.

South Korea purchased 2.8 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from South America or South Africa, in a private deal that closed on Thursday. The grain is for shipment starting in late November.

Corn settlements on Thursday were for 437,546 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices found a bit of upside following multiple flash sales that were announced Friday morning. However, expectations that Brazilian production could top 6 billion bushels for the first time ever this season kept gains largely in check. November futures added 1.5 cents to $9.84, with January futures up 0.75 cents to $9.9525.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. December soymeal futures eroded more than 1.25% lower, while December soyoil futures jumped more than 2.75% higher.

Soybean basis bids eased a penny lower at an Illinois processor while firming 2 to 5 cents at two other Midwestern locations and holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.

Private exporters announced two large soybean sales to USDA on Friday, including 7.3 million bushels to unknown destinations and 4.9 million bushels to China. Both sales are for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year, which began September 1. Exporters also announced the sale of 30,000 metric tons of soyoil for delivery to India during the current marketing year.

China’s concerns over future trade spats with the U.S. are evident in its shifting pattern of soybean imports over the past several years. The share of Chinese imports from the U.S. have shrunk from 40% in 2016 down to 18% this year, while Brazil’s share has ballooned from 46% up to 76% over the same period. “Beijing feels much safer knowing the U.S. has less leverage over China’s food security in the event of a major conflict,” according to Even Pay, agriculture analysts with the Trivium China consultancy. “That reduction is by design.”

Argentina’s agricultural exports in October jumped 243% higher versus September’s total after reaching a total of $2.55 billion. Overall farm sector revenues during the first 10 months of 2024 are 21% better than last year’s pace so far. “Aggressive” soymeal and soyoil shipments were a large factor in this change.

South Korea purchased 60,000 metric tons of soymeal, likely sourced from the United States, South America or China, in a tender that closed recently. The grain is for arrival around May 10, 2025.

Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 217,239 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices on some expected drought relief in the U.S. Plains, with additional rainfall moving through that region over the next several days. December Chicago SRW futures fell 3.25 cents to $5.6725, December Kansas City HRW futures dropped 3 cents to $5.6625, and December MGEX spring wheat futures lost 5.25 cents to $5.99.

Ukraine’s grain exports jumped almost 59% higher year-over-year in October. The country’s total grain exports during the 2024/25 marketing year have included wheat sales totaling 282.9 million bushels and corn sales totaling 185.0 million bushels since the beginning of July. Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of both commodities. Traders have burned through nearly half of the government’s wheat export quotas so far.

Algeria is believed to have purchased up to 22.0 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed on Thursday. The bulk of the grain is thought to have been sourced from the Black Sea region. The grain is for shipment in December.

Tunisia purchased 2.8 million bushels of durum wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between late November and late December.

And finally, if you haven’t been to FarmFutures.com in a while, our Friday feature “7 ag stories you can’t miss” is designed to quickly catch you up on the industry’s top headlines. Today’s edition includes a look at the latest USDA disaster aid, how to estimate hay needs for your cattle and more. Click here to get started.

CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 98,128 contracts.

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About the Author

Ben Potter

Senior editor, Farm Futures

Senior Editor Ben Potter brings two decades of professional agricultural communications and journalism experience to Farm Futures. He began working in the industry in the highly specific world of southern row crop production. Since that time, he has expanded his knowledge to cover a broad range of topics relevant to agriculture, including agronomy, machinery, technology, business, marketing, politics and weather. He has won several writing awards from the American Agricultural Editors Association, most recently on two features about drones and farmers who operate distilleries as a side business. Ben is a graduate of the University of Missouri School of Journalism.

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