Beef: Weekly beef exports for the last week of July, reported at 41.4 million lb., were up 4.8% week over week but were 25% higher than the prior year. Weekly exports throughout the four full reported weeks of July were up 26% from the same weeks the year before. Exports to Japan continue to lead the charge, up 34% year over year and, at 15.9 million lb., the largest export total on record. Despite the aggressive shipments, net sales have struggled to keep up, leaving outstanding sales well off the aggressive pace noted through June. Japan, Korea and Taiwan have been drawing on their stocks without renewing orders, dropping outstanding sales near 18% (or 63 million lb.) from early-June peaks. Despite the decline, pounds of beef sold but not yet shipped remain 14% over last year and continue to imply an aggressive back half of the year, albeit not at the same rate seen throughout the front half of 2018. U.S. Department of Agriculture international meat trade data were released Aug. 6. Following the all-time export record set in May, the data are expected to show another all-time record export total for June, forecasted at nearly 15% over the prior year.

Pork: Hog weights typically move lower throughout July and into mid-August as a result of heat stress and a strong packer pull on animals for summer pork product demand. The strong effects of this heat stress on health pulled a little earlier this year, starting in May, when the harvest-level increase over the prior year was the tightest it is expected to be in 2018, on a relative basis. Hog weights descended sharply from highs 4-5  lb. heavier than the prior year and the average for the first five months of the year. Higher temperatures than last year pulled weights down in May, but that trend appears to be coming to a halt. In the last several weeks, hog liveweights appear to be forming a bottom. This has not been because of heat differential but because packers are pulling back on harvest levels sooner than expected given the time of year and product preparations still required to finish out summer demand.

Poultry: According to the most recent weekly USDA “Poultry Slaughter” report, a total of 166.2 million young chickens were slaughtered during the week ended July 28, which was up 0.5% from a year earlier. Liveweights of broilers slaughtered were moderately higher as well, at 6.17 lb. Most surprising of the report released this week was the total amount of young chickens in the 4.26-6.25 lb. category, which came in at 38.67 million. This was 6.8 million head lower than the previous week and 16.89 million head lower than the same week a year earlier. The 6.26-7.75 lb. category absorbed the disparity, though, as young chickens harvested in this category totaled 50.2 million head, up 10.3 million from the previous week and up 17.07 million head from the same week a year earlier. Given the sluggishness that has arisen in spot markets recently, it will not be unprecedented to see exchanges in weight categories in the coming weeks. IEG expects additional shifting as temperatures begin to cool off this fall and weights again rise more rapidly.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.