In the latest “Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook,” USDA economists reported that wholesale table-egg prices (New York, Grade A Large) averaged $1.01/dozen in May, a 59% decrease compared to last year and a 45% month-over-month decrease. After averaging 89 cents/dozen in the first half of May, daily wholesale egg prices were on an upward trajectory for most of the second half of the year but plateaued at $1.23/dozen during the last days of May. These late-May prices were carried into early June, the report noted.

Going forward, as the summer weather does not encourage indoor baking, the demand for table eggs tends to level off. As a result, USDA economists Grace Grossen and Adriana Valcu-Lisman said wholesale egg prices should follow the seasonal expectations, with limited upward or downward movements during June and July.

Given current wholesale prices and egg inventory trajectories, USDA left its second-quarter average wholesale egg price forecast at $1.35/dozen. However, the third- and the fourth-quarter average price projections were revised down to $1.30 and $1.45/dozen, respectively. These changes bring USDA’s 2023 average egg price forecast to $1.82/dozen, almost 36% lower year over year lower.

USDA left its 2024 average egg price projection unchanged from last month at $1.44/dozen.

Table-egg production turns higher

Table-egg production was estimated at 642.7 million dozen eggs in April, about 1.4% higher than April 2022. According to Grossen and Valcu-Lisman, the growth was largely due to a 3.6% increase in the average size of the table-egg layer flock inventory that more than offset a 2.1% decrease in the average lay rate.

“With gains in the flock size, the daily industry output—measured as table eggs produced per day—has been on an upward trajectory and has gained more than 2% since the beginning of the year. April is the first month showing a year-over-year increase in production since February of last year,” the economist noted.