Beef: Heading into last Friday evening, the cash cattle market still was not well established, although there were indications of producers passing on bids of $126/cwt. live from the packer. Last week's market certainly could end up a couple of dollars higher than the $125 seen in the previous week. Cutout values were fully steady to firmer this week, with gains in the rib and loin primals partially offset by weakness in the chuck and round primals. Spot market volumes were larger in total, primarily in the end meats, while several of the rib and loin items were showing smaller sales volumes. Cutout values are expected to firm into March. Winter weather came into play once again this week, affecting cattle harvest levels. Last week's total was estimated at 577,000 head, which was 19,000 head below the prior week and just 2,000 head above last year's relatively small number.

Pork: With recent harvest levels so strong, it brings to question the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers and their validity, given the hog weights trending as normal and without signs of animals being pulled ahead to achieve the strong harvest levels. The forecast in the number of animals has not changed, with the levels throughout expected to be robust. Total animals through the system during the first quarter appear to be somewhere close to 3.5% over the prior year, as USDA forecasted in December. What was not in the forecast for this same time was weaker exports. This is putting a heavier burden on the domestic market to clear product, with U.S. consumers likely to participate 5% over the prior year for pork consumption in the first quarter. The forecast for second-quarter harvest is likely to be somewhere close to 4% over the prior year. If realized, this would be 3.2% below the first quarter, so it should tighten from current levels on a relative basis.

Poultry: In the latest USDA “Turkey Hatchery” report, eggs placed in incubators totaled 28.1 million on Feb. 1, which was down slightly from a year earlier and up slightly from the Jan. 1 total. Despite eggs set in incubators remaining steady, net poult placements were severely dampened during January compared with the year before. USDA reported just 20.22 million net poults placed during January, a 10% decline from the same month a year earlier. It also contributed to a 3.4% decline in total net poults placed for the September-to-January period versus a year earlier. The most recent “Turkey Hatchery” only exacerbates the dampening of turkey production during 2019 and further encourages procurement teams to respond to the current low price environment. Ready-to-cook turkey production was up 2.8% from year ago during the week ended Feb. 8, at 110.78 million lb. However, the six-week production total remains 3.5% below the prior year for the same period.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various .meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.