Beef: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service released Aug. 10 its latest update on the “Meat Price Spreads” data series, which revealed the average red meat and poultry retail prices for July. Retail Choice beef prices were reported at $6.02/lb., up counter-seasonally from the prior month but still 8 cents under a year ago. The all fresh retail beef price, reported at $5.76/lb., was about even with the prior month but was 5 cents under last year. (The all fresh retail beef price series includes prices for Choice cuts, non-Choice cuts and ground beef sold in grocery stores, and since the all fresh retail beef price series includes lower-valued items, the reported price generally is lower than the retail Choice beef counterpart.) Forward beef sales in the 22- to 60-day period have averaged 12% over a year ago across the past eight weeks and likely were made for Labor Day retail features. Last week's cattle harvest, reported at 660,000 head, is the largest August harvest since 2011 and is expected to pressure the cutouts into late summer. However, it will likely also be leveraged to service the aforementioned active forward sales.

Pork: Harvest resumed to excellent levels last week and hit 468,000 head for several days in a row -- the largest harvest levels since the end of January. Harvest levels are picking up, and hogs pulled off half the weight gain from the prior week at these now higher harvest levels. Still, it is not clear how the value of hogs will fare after this week, when packers are no longer pulling animals for Labor Day preparations and the cutout could experience more pressure. Will packers need to keep up the daily harvest levels as hogs become available, or will producers have to lower hog prices further to keep packers motivated? After this week, hogs typically gain weight as a result of cooler weather, coupled with packers influencing the harvest levels. If hogs gain weight too quickly, the cash hogs will see further downward pressure. Spot cash hogs already are at the $40 level, with settlement hogs barely at $53. What is to keep settlement hogs from trading below $50?

Poultry: USDA’s latest “Turkey Hatchery” report showed that poult placements for July totaled 24.9 million, beating expectations by nearly 1 million head while representing a 3.8% increase from the same month last year. June was revised moderately higher but still reflects a 6.4% change from a year ago. All told, placements during the second quarter came in at 67.7 million, 3.1% lower than a year earlier. The second quarter revealed softer placements as well, dropping 1.8% below the same quarter a year earlier. The decrease this year will keep the turkey industry on a reserved pace for the foreseeable future. However, it is worth noting that some of the recent drop is in response to languishing spot market values, some of which have not yet corrected to the point that margins have returned to a strong situation for producers. With that said, however, spot prices for key turkey parts have been bolstered by tighter fresh market supplies. Informa Economics IEG expects 267 million poults to be placed overall this year, down 1.5% from the 2017 total.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.