Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher after some uneven technical maneuvering on Tuesday. Wheat saw the most upside, finding variable gains that mostly ranged between 1.25% and 2.5%. Corn prices were also firm for a second consecutive session after rising more than 1% today. The soy complex slumped lower, in contrast, as the 2023 crop looks to be off to a strong start so far. Drier weather is expected for the eastern half of the country between Wednesday and Saturday, but a few scattered fields could get another drink later this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Some areas of the Plains will gather another 0.5” or more during this time. Further out, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts drier-than-normal conditions emerging in the Great Lakes region between May 30 and June 5, with seasonally warm weather likely for most of the Corn Belt.

On Wall St., the Dow dropped 232 points in afternoon trading to 33,054. Investor focus remains highly focused in ongoing debt ceiling negotiations, which have not been seen as being very productive so far (although to be fair, we aren’t privy to what’s going on behind the scenes). Energy futures trended higher, with crude oil up nearly 1.5% this afternoon to $73 per barrel. Diesel captured fractional gains, while gasoline moved more than 0.5% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.

On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+8,500), soybeans (+12,000), soymeal (+1,500), soyoil (+6,000) and CBOT wheat (+500).

Corn

Corn prices made moderate improvements on Tuesday thanks to another round of technical buying today. July futures rose 6.5 cents to $5.7750, with September futures up 7.25 cents to $5.12.

Corn basis bids inched a penny higher at an Ohio elevator and dropped 3 cents at an Iowa river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.

Corn plantings reached 81% through May 21, versus week-ago results of 65%, per the latest USDA crop progress report, out Monday afternoon. Analysts were expecting to see a bit more progress, offering an average trade guess of 82% prior to today’s report. Still, this season’s start is significantly faster than 2022’s pace of 69% and the prior five-year average of 75%. Of the top 18 production states, only North Dakota (32%) has yet to reach the halfway mark. More than half (52%) of the crop is now emerged, up from 30% a week ago.

Per the latest data from the European Commission, out earlier today, EU corn imports during the 2022/23 marketing year have climbed 63% above last year’s pace after reaching 944.4 million bushels through May 21.

Brazil’s Anec only expects the country’s corn exports to reach 15.2 million bushels in May. That’s 32% below the group’s prior projection from a week ago.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 267,064 contracts, which was slightly below Monday’s final count of 284,857.

Soybeans

Soybean prices faced double-digit cuts on a round of technical selling spurred by the perceived strong start for the 2023 U.S. crop, along with expectations of record-breaking production in Brazil. July futures spilled 18.75 cents lower to $13.2250, with August futures down 16.75 cents to $12.5875. Soymeal and soyoil futures were also in the red today.

Soybean basis bids held steady across the central U.S. on Tuesday.

Soybean plantings are now 66% complete, up from 49% a week ago and mirroring analyst expectations. Total progress is far ahead of 2022’s pace of 47% and the prior five-year average of 52%. State-by-state progress ranges between 20% in North Dakota up to 85% in Illinois. And 36% of the crop is now emerged, up from 20% a week ago and 12 points above the prior five-year average of 24%.

European Union soybean imports during the 2022/23 marketing year have reached 417.4 million bushels through May 21, which is around 12% below last year’s pace so far. EU soymeal imports are also trending lower year-over-year, reaching 14.09 million metric tons over the same period.

Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s soybean exports to reach 584.2 million bushels in May, which is slightly higher than its prior projection from a week ago. Anec also anticipates Brazilian soymeal exports will reach 2.49 million metric tons this month.

Iran purchased 260,000 metric tons of soymeal, likely sourced from Argentina or Brazil, in an international tender that closed on Monday. The grain is for shipment in June and July.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 199,263 contracts, sliding moderately below Monday’s final count of 240,016.

Wheat

Wheat prices continued to push higher again on Tuesday thanks to another round of technical buying today. Winter wheat quality ratings have seen modest improvements in recent weeks, although overall ratings are still quite dismal (more on that below). September Chicago SRW futures gained 15.75 cents to $6.3450, September Kansas City HRW futures rose 16 cents to $8.3375, and September MGEX spring wheat futures added 11.75 cents to $8.2425.

Winter wheat quality ratings saw a two-point increase, with 31% of the crop now in good-to-excellent condition. Analysts were expecting a one-point increase. Another 29% of the crop is rated fair (down one point from last week), with the remaining 40% rated poor or very poor (also down one point from last week). Physiologically, 61% of the crop is now headed, up from 49% last week and mirroring both 2022’s pace as well as the prior five-year average.

Spring wheat plantings are now 64% complete as of Sunday, versus week-ago progress of 40%. That puts 2023’s pace well ahead of last year’s trend of 48% but still moderately behind the prior five-year average of 73%.

European Union soft wheat exports during the 2022/23 marketing year reached 845.1 million bushels through May 21, which is 13% higher than last year’s pace so far. In contrast, EU barley exports are down 15% year-over-year, with 267.3 million bushels.

The United States purchased 7.7 million bushels of wheat, sourced from Poland and Germany, in a tender that recently closed. The grain is for shipment primarily between May and August and is for milling wheat with protein content ranging between 12.5% and 13%.

South Korea purchased 5.0 million bushels of milling wheat, sourced from the United States, Canada and Australia, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment in August and September.

The Philippines purchased 1.5 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed late last week. The grain is for shipment in July.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 85,777 CBOT contracts, tracking 14% below Monday’s final count of 99,718.