Hog inventory down with little intention to expand
Possibility of profitable hog prices in 2022 if feed costs don’t rise too high.
April 6, 2022
USDA’s March “Hogs and Pigs” report revealed the March 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs at 72.209 million head, down about 3% from the previous quarter and 2.3% from March 2021. Pre-report analyst estimates expected the inventory to be only 1.2% lower. Western Illinois University economist Jason Franken said the market hog inventory is about 2.4% smaller than a year ago, compared to expectations that the inventory would only be 1.3% lower. While all hogs and pigs and market hogs fall within anticipated ranges of around 0.5% to nearly 3% lower for both, the breeding herd, the December to February pig crop, and farrowing intentions from March to May and June to August are all somewhat lower than expected, he said.
“For instance, the breeding herd is 1.9% smaller, compared to expectations that it could be up 0.1% with a range of 0.6% lower to 0.5% higher.”
Further, Franken said each class of market hog inventories is down compared to the same time last year. The heaviest two weight classes of 120-to-179-pounds and over-180-pounds are about 3.5% and 3.8% lower, respectively. Meanwhile, the under-50-pound class and 50-to-119-pound class are about 1% and 2% lower than last year, compared to expectations of about 1% higher and 0.5% lower, respectively. Overall, the number of hogs weighing less than 180 pounds is around 2% smaller than a year ago, and these will be the market hogs arriving at processing plants from April to August.
Franken said the decline in lighter weight hogs partly reflects that with around 1% fewer sows farrowed and pigs per litter essentially even with last year, the December-February pig crop is almost 1% smaller than a year ago—well below the anticipated range of 0.4-2.6% higher. Market hogs from this pig crop will arrive at processors from June to August. On a monthly basis, the last time pigs per litter exceeded the prior year was last December, noted Franken. Meanwhile, spring and summer farrowing intentions are down 1.5% and 0.6%, respectively, from actual farrowings last year.