African swine fever (ASF), a disease only contagious in pigs and wild boars, has been spreading across the Caucasus region, Europe and Asia since 2007, but has not yet reached the U.S.

Following the recent spread of ASF in Asia and western Europe, a team of researchers from around the world, including some from the University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine, set out to measure the risk of ASF entering the U.S. through the smuggling of pork products in air passenger luggage, the University of Minnesota announced.

The findings were recently published in the journal Scientific Reports.

The study found:

* The risk of ASF arriving in the U.S. has nearly doubled since the ASF epidemic began in 2018;

* Five specific airports account for more than 90% of the potential risk: Newark in New Jersey, George Bush-Houston in Texas, Los Angeles in California, John F. Kennedy in New York and San Jose in California, and

* There’s a high probability that the ASF virus is already reaching the U.S. borders through smuggling of pork products; however, likely due to the work of U.S. Customs & Border Protection, the virus has not entered the country.

“If ASF were to enter the United States, its spread would cause immense economic damage to the pork industry and food production more broadly, leading to the loss of billions of dollars for swine producers,” said study co-author Andres Perez, director of the Center for Animal Health & Food Safety. “Our study’s findings can help support decision-making for disease surveillance strategies in the U.S. swine industry and transportation hubs.”

Perez said the University of Minnesota Center for Animal Health & Food Safety will continue working closely with Minnesota and U.S. swine veterinarians and producers to increase preparedness and awareness to prevent or mitigate the impact of a hypothetical ASF epidemic.

The research team included: Cristina Jurado, Complutense University of Madrid in Spain and the Kansas State University College of Veterinary Medicine; Lina Mur, Kansas State College of Veterinary Medicine; María Sol Pérez Aguirreburualde, Center for Animal Health & Food Safety at the University of Minnesota College of Veterinary Medicine; Estefanía Cadenas-Fernández, Complutense University of Madrid, Beatriz Martínez-López, University of California-Davis School of Veterinary Medicine; José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Complutense University of Madrid, and Perez.