Corn and wheat prices tested modest overnight gains but were unable to hold onto them as Tuesday’s session bore on. Corn prices ended the session with 0.4% losses, while some wheat contracts were down as much as 0.9%. Soybean prices also faced moderate cuts – while Brazil’s harvest is progressing a bit smaller than normal, it will nonetheless deliver a massive amount of fresh supplies to the market.

Most of the Midwest and Plains will see at least some measurable rain and/or snow between Wednesday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. The agency’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts widespread seasonally wet weather for the central U.S. between February 21 and February 27, with colder-than-normal conditions moving into the Northern Plains and upper Midwest during this time.

On Wall St., the Dow eroded 128 points lower in afternoon trading to 34,117 after the latest CPI data showed slightly higher-than-expected inflation, which is at 6.4%. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil spilled 1.25% lower to $79 per barrel on plans for the U.S. to release more of its strategic reserves. Gasoline dropped more than 1.5%, while diesel trended 1.25% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.

On Monday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+3,000), soybeans (+2,000), soymeal (+2,500) and CBOT wheat (+1,500) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-1,500).

Corn

Corn prices tested modest gains overnight but ultimately spilled into the red following some technical selling on Tuesday. March and May futures each dropped 2.75 cents to close at $6.8225 and $6.7950, respectively.

Corn basis bids were steady to mixed after rising 3 to 10 cents higher at two Midwestern locations while fading 2 cents lower at an Indiana ethanol plant on Tuesday.

Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s corn exports will reach 83.3 million bushels in February. That’s around 8% below the group’s prior projection from a week ago.

Mexico’s government released a document on Monday that allows for “authorizations for genetically modified corn for animal feed and industrial use for human food.” The government had originally ordered the elimination of GMO corn imports by January 2024 but has been in ongoing negotiations with the U.S., especially considering the policy may be in violation of USMCA terms.

After a lucrative 2022 export season, the prospects don’t feel as certain for 2023, according to Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacqueline Holland. “It’s no secret that 2023 export forecasts may not match the prior year’s highs,” she notes. “According to the World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA’s export volume forecasts for the 2022/23 marketing year are 22%, 8%, and 3% lower for corn, soybeans, and wheat, respectively, than in the year prior.” Holland digs into the numbers and gathers much more analysis – click here to learn more.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 283,907 contracts, moving around xx% below Monday’s final count of 374,194.

Soybeans

Soybean prices followed a broad set of other commodities lower, with traders also opting to lock in profits as this season’s Brazilian harvest progresses. March futures dropped 5.75 cents to $15.37, with May futures down 6.75 cents to $15.2925.

The rest of the soy complex was mixed. Soyoil prices dropped 0.5%, while soyoil inched approximately 0.15% higher today.

Soybean basis bids firmed 2 to 3 cents higher at two interior river terminals and eased a penny lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Tuesday.

Prior to the next monthly report from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), which will be released on Wednesday, analysts expect the group to show a January soybean crush of 181.656 million bushels. That would be 2.3% higher than December’s tally, if realized. Individual trade guesses ranged between 176.980 million and 187.0 million bushels.

Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports in February will reach an impressive volume of 345.0 million bushels. That’s still slightly below the group’s prior projection from a week ago, however. Anec also expects to see Brazilian soymeal exports reach 1.860 million metric tons this month.

Meantime, Brazil’s grain storage deficit could reach an unprecedented level of 117 million metric tons, according to machinery manufacturing group Abimaq. A spokesperson said Brazil would need to invest nearly $3 billion per year to keep this current gap from further widening.

Also coming out of Brazil is consultancy Agroconsult’s latest prediction for the country’s 2022/23 soybean crop, which it has slightly lowered to 5.622 billion bushels, which would still be a record, if realized.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 236,171 contracts, which was moderately lower than Monday’s final count of 310,186.

Wheat

Wheat prices saw variable losses after being sideswiped by a round of technical selling on Tuesday. March Chicago SRW futures fell 7.25 cents to $7.8475, March Kansas City HRW futures dropped 7 cents to $9.0525, and March MGEX spring wheat futures eased a penny lower to $9.2975.

India’s government expects the country’s wheat production to reach a new record of 4.123 billion bushels in 2023, a 4.1% year-over-year increase, if realized. Despite rewriting the record books, an export ban remains in place while the country works to replenish its state reserves and keep domestic prices lower. This year’s harvest will likely begin in March.

Farmers in France, which is Europe’s top wheat producer, are planning on planting 2% more soft wheat acres this season, with an estimated footprint of 11.762 million acres. French farmers are also expected to plan an additional 575,800 acres of durum wheat this season.

Japan issued a regular tender to purchase 2.8 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia that closes on Thursday. Of the total, 29% is expected to be sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment starting in late March.

On Today’s edition of Farm Progress America, broadcaster Max Armstrong shares some insights on a potential new crop that has big potential in the West – proso millet, which can be used for both livestock feed and human consumption. Click here to learn more.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 145,771 CBOT contracts, shifting moderately below Monday’s final count of 175,061.