Agribusiness News

Weekly Grain Movement – The destination that wasn’t

China was conspicuously absent in the latest export data.

Bryce Knorr 1, Senior Market Analyst, Farm Futures

July 23, 2018

2 Min Read

Bow view of fully loaded cargo ship.Stewart Sutton/ThinkstockPhotos

Corn, soybeans and wheat export inspections all landed on the high end of trade guesses for the week ending July 19, but the news wasn’t all positive – especially as it concerns China and soybeans.

“The headline on today’s report was the destination that wasn’t in it: China,” says Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr. “USDA reported no crops were inspected for export to the country we’re embroiled in a trade dispute with. Still, other countries remain willing buyers, helping keep total inspections near the rate needed through August to reach USDA forecast for the 2018 crop.”

Soybean export inspections last week totaled 26.5 million bushels, moving slightly ahead of the prior week’s total of 23.4 million bushels and nearly topping trade estimates, which ranged between 16 million and 27 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts remains a manageable 23.1 million bushels, while marketing year-to-date totals for 2017/18 are still 4.2% behind last year’s pace, at 1.9 billion bushels.

Egypt and Mexico shared the top destination for U.S. soybean export inspections last week, with 6.0 million bushels each. Other top destinations included the Netherlands (5.3 million), Bangladesh (3.1 million) and Italy (1.6 million).

Corn export inspections last week totaled 51.7 million bushels, moving slightly ahead of the prior week’s total of 49.7 million bushels, and perching near the top of the average trade guess, which ranged between 37 million and 55 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts is a relatively aggressive 54.8 million bushels required through August, however, and marketing year-to-date totals for 2017/18 are 3.9% last year’s pace, at 1.961 billion bushels.

Japan was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn export inspections last week, with 15.7 million bushels. Other top destinations included Mexico (12.3 million), South Korea (5.1 million), Colombia (3.8 million), Peru (3.1 million) and Saudi Arabia (2.9 million).

Wheat export inspections last week hit 14.6 million bushels, easing from the prior week’s total of 17.3 million bushels but landing in the middle of the average trade guess, which ranged between 11 million and 18 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to reach 2018/19 USDA forecasts moved slightly higher, to 18.7 million bushels, while the marketing year-to-date totals started slow, tracking 41% behind last year’s pace with 96 million bushels.

Mexico was the leading destination for U.S. wheat export inspections last week, with 2.8 million bushels. Other top destinations included Japan (2.3 million), South Korea (2.2 million), Iraq (1.9 million) and Yemen (1.0 million).