Animal and animal product cash receipts are expected to fall 12.3% to $23.4 billion in 2016, according to the “2016 Farm Sector Income Forecast” released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service. Relative to 2015, prices are expected to fall for almost all major animal and animal product commodities, especially eggs.
Since reaching a record high of $49.4 billion in 2014, milk receipts are forecasted to drop 31.2% to $15.4 billion over 2015-16 as declining prices continue to outweigh expected increases in milk production, the report noted.
Cash receipts from cattle and calves are also expected to decline in 2016, falling almost 15% to $11.6 billion from 2015 as cattle/calf prices decline.
USDA said hog production is expected to continue rising in 2016 as the industry recovers from porcine epidemic virus (PEDV) in 2014. Hog prices are expected to drop in 2016, leading to a nearly 7% decrease in hog cash receipts.
While animal and animal product receipts are forecasted to be substantially lower, turkeys are expected to increase 10.6%, or $600 million, while miscellaneous livestock increase 2.9%, or $200 million.
USDA forecasted poultry and egg cash receipts to fall more than 18% in 2016 due primarily to a decline in egg receipts. Highly pathogenic avian influenza resulted in 50.4 million birds being destroyed in 2015, with turkeys and egg-laying chickens suffering the largest loss in numbers and driving egg prices to new — if fleeting — highs, USDA said.
“The egg-laying industry has returned to normalcy in post-flu 2016, and the greater production levels have resulted in large price declines, with an overall decline in 2016 chicken-egg receipts,” the report explained.
Broiler prices are expected to decline in 2016 as production increases, leading to a decline in broiler cash receipts.