WHILE the U.S. economy is now in its sixth year of recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-09, many rural areas have struggled to recover the jobs they lost during the downturn.

While urban employment now exceeds pre-recession levels, rural employment remains well below its 2007 peak and has continued to fall over the last year in many areas, according to the latest "Rural America at a Glance" report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Urban employment rose by 5% between the second quarters of 2010 and 2014. However, over the same four-year period, employment grew by just 1.1% in rural America, and as of mid-2014, it remained more than 3% below pre-recession levels despite a slight uptick recently.

Notable clusters of employment decline can be found in the Deep South, Appalachia, the Mountain West and the Pacific Northwest (Map). Employment in rural America as a whole is not even 2% above the employment trough reached during the recession and rose less than 1% between mid-2013 and mid-2014.

One region seeing employment growth, however, is the northern Plains, where energy extraction is generating new jobs.

"Counties experiencing such energy resource-driven growth still account for a small share of rural counties, but their numbers are significant in some areas, particularly in the nation's midsection," the report notes.

Between 2001 and 2011, oil and gas extraction was substantial relative to the local economy in 537 U.S. counties, including 444 rural counties. Oil/gas extraction at least doubled in 114 of these rural counties, mostly near major North American shale plays in Arkansas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Texas.

Rural counties that are adjacent to metro areas have also experienced faster-than-average job growth since 2009 after having suffered larger-than-average job losses during the 2007-09 recession.

Based on data for 2008-12, the share of working-age adults with at least a four-year college degree was 14% higher in urban areas (32%) than in rural areas (18%). Rural areas had a far greater proportion of working-age adults with a high school diploma but no further education and had a slightly greater proportion with some college experience but less than a four-year degree, the report states.

Across the rural-urban continuum, recovery from the recession has generally been more suc­cessful in counties where the working-age population has relatively high levels of education, the report adds.

"One likely rea­son is that the occupations and industries associated with higher education, such as education and health services, have done relatively well since the recession, providing high-education counties with more jobs to support a growing population. However, innovative leadership, higher-quality schools and greater wealth may also have contributed to the high-education county advantage," the report explains.

Despite the generally lower employee earnings in rural areas, some individuals and families do migrate from urban to rural areas at all levels of educational attainment due to quality-of-life factors, lower housing costs, personal ties or other specific opportunities that motivate them to move to, or move back to, rural America.

Volume:86 Issue:49

A NEW study led by the University of California-Berkeley and involving the University of Colorado-Boulder indicates that the current response to wildfires around the world — aggressively fighting them — is not making society less vulnerable to such events.

The findings suggest that the key is to treat fires like other natural hazards — including earthquakes, severe storms and flooding — by learning to coexist, adapt and identify vulnerabilities.

The new study determined that government-sponsored firefighting and land management policies may actually encourage development on inherently hazardous landscapes, leading to an amplification of human loss to wildfire.

"We don't try to 'fight' earthquakes; we anticipate them in the way we plan communities, build buildings and prepare for emergencies. We don't think that way about fire, but our review indicates that we should," said lead author Max Moritz of the University of California-Berkeley's College of Natural Resources. "Human losses will only be mitigated when land use planning takes fire hazards into account in the same manner as other natural hazards, like floods, hurricanes and earthquakes."

A paper on the subject appeared in the Nov. 6 issue of Nature.

"We are in dire need of a more sustainable coexistence with wildfire," said study co-author and research scientist Tania Schoennagel with the University of Colorado-Boulder's Institute of Arctic & Alpine Research. "Unless we plan for fire as an inevitable and natural process, it will continue to have serious social and ecological consequences."

The study looked at research findings from three continents: North America, Australia and Europe. The scientists studied different kinds of natural fires, what drives them in various ecosystems, differing public responses and the critical wildland/urban interface. Additionally, they analyzed fire data from the western U.S., the Mediterranean Basin and all of Australia.

"We have mostly approached wildfire management from the ecological side through fuel reduction," Schoennagel said. "While this can be effective, it can only achieve so much. To more successfully coexist with wildfire, we also need preventative tools, like residential land use planning, zoning guidelines, fire-resistant building codes and fuel management on and around homes, for example."

In the western U.S., there has been a 60% expansion in the wildland/urban interface since 1970, primarily in forests that have a history of moderate- to high-severity fires.

Although a September 2014 study involving Schoennagel found that the perception that fires in Colorado's Front Range are becoming increasingly severe does not hold much water scientifically, she said the rapid expansion of the wildland/urban interface is helping wreak unprecedented havoc on Colorado homes in the line of fire.

"We have learned that forest thinning is rarely effective under extreme burning conditions, and the severity of fire in adjacent forests has little to do with whether a home burns," said Schoennagel, who also is affiliated with the Boulder geography department. "Solely relying on public forest management to prevent homes burning by wildfire is simply barking up the wrong tree. We need more integrated solutions that cross the public/private land boundary to help us coexist with inevitable wildfire."

In addition to updated land use and zoning regulations, the researchers recommend updating building codes, implementing vegetation management strategies and evaluating evacuation and warning systems.

Conducting carefully planned, prescribed burns can help manage the severity of wildfires in some ecosystems, the study authors said. Both prescribed burns and natural wildfires can stimulate vegetation regeneration, promote vegetation diversity, provide habitat for wildlife and sustain other natural ecosystem activities like nutrient cycling.

"A different view of wildfire is urgently needed," Moritz said. "We must accept wildfire as a crucial and inevitable natural process on many landscapes. There is no alternative. The path we are on will lead to a deepening of our fire-related problems worldwide, which will only become worse as the climate changes."

Volume:86 Issue:49

A NEW avian influenza strain detected in Europe that is similar to strains reported to be circulating in Asia this year poses a significant threat to the poultry sector, especially in low-resource countries situated along the Black Sea and East Atlantic migratory routes of wild birds, the U.N. Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) warned Nov. 24.

Germany, the Netherlands and the U.K. have confirmed finding the new high-pathogenic avian flu virus strain H5N8 on poultry farms, and German authorities have also found the virus in a wild bird.

Earlier this year, China, Japan and South Korea reported outbreaks of H5N8 in poultry as well as findings in migratory birds and waterfowl, FAO and OIE said.

The fact that the virus has now been found within a very short time interval in three European countries, both in a wild bird and in three very different types of poultry production systems, suggests that wild birds may have played a role in spreading the virus, FAO and OIE experts said.

H5N8 is highly pathogenic for domesticated poultry, causing significant mortality in chickens and turkeys. The virus can also infect wild birds, which show few signs of illness. It is known from other influenza viruses that wild birds are able to carry the virus long distances, the agencies said.

Should poultry systems with low biosecurity conditions become infected in countries with limited veterinary preparedness, the virus could spread through farms and have devastating effects on both vulnerable livelihoods as well as on national economies and trade.

The best way for countries to safeguard against these impacts is to encourage better biosecurity and to maintain surveillance systems that detect outbreaks early and enable veterinary services to respond rapidly, FAO and OIE said.

The new strain of avian influenza has not resulted in human cases. Nevertheless, it is related to the H5N1 virus, which is known to have spread from Asia into Europe and Africa in 2005-06. The ongoing H5N1 epidemic, in which wild birds have also been implicated, has caused the deaths of nearly 400 people and hundreds of millions of poultry to date. Therefore, prudent and precautionary interventions at the animal level are warranted, FAO and OIE said.

 

Vigilance

The new virus strain provides a "stark reminder" to the world that avian influenza viruses continue to evolve and emerge, with potential threats to public health, food security and nutrition, to the livelihoods of vulnerable poultry farmers, as well as to trade and national economies, the announcement said. Therefore, extreme vigilance is strongly recommended, while progressive control efforts must be sustained and financed.

In particular, to protect poultry-related livelihoods and trade, FAO and OIE are recommending that at-risk countries:

* Increase surveillance efforts for the early detection of H5N8 and other influenza viruses;

* Maintain and further strengthen rapid response capacities of veterinary services;

* Reinforce biosecurity measures, with particular emphasis on minimizing contact between domesticated poultry and wild birds, and

* Raise awareness of hunters and other individuals who may come into contact with wildlife in order to provide early information on sick or dead wild birds.

 

History to date

According to OIE, authorities in Korea reported the first poultry cases of a highly pathogenic strain of H5N8 in January. Korea reported a total of 29 outbreaks involving geese, chickens and ducks, and close to 600,000 birds were culled. This event was resolved in September, when the country reported a new outbreak in ducks reared for meat production in which 1,200 birds died and 19,800 were culled to control the disease.

In April, Japan notified OIE of one outbreak caused by H5N8, with 1,100 cases reported. As a part of control measures, 112,000 birds were destroyed or culled. This outbreak was resolved in July, but Japan reported another outbreak in November in tundra swans, OIE said.

China reported H5N8 in October, notifying OIE of two outbreaks involving one environmental sample and one duck sample collected as a part of the national surveillance plan.

In early November, authorities in Germany confirmed H5N8 in fattening turkeys in a semi-closed rearing system in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. One case was detected, and all 1,731 susceptible birds present on the farm were destroyed.

Nine days later, veterinary services in the Netherlands detected the virus within a farm of 150,000 layer and breeding hens at a closed breeding system near Utrecht. One thousand cases were confirmed, and all susceptible animals on the infected premises were killed.

The U.K. also detected a highly pathogenic avian flu virus subtype H5N8 in a housed 60-week-old duck breeding flock that started at about the same time as the outbreak in the Netherlands. Approximately 6,000 birds have been culled.

OIE noted that the high-pathogenic virus found in Europe appears to be closely related to the virus found in Korea.

Previously, a low-pathogenic form of the H5N8 virus was detected in Idaho in 2008, and a similar low-pathogenic form was found in California earlier this year.

Volume:86 Issue:49

OBESITY in female sheep during pregnancy can affect the metabolic profile and health of the animals' granddaughters, as well as their daughters, according to a study conducted at the University of Wyoming and published in the International Journal of Obesity.

The study has implications for predicting obesity — particularly abdominal fat — in people, an announcement said.

Stephen Ford, the University of Wyoming's Rochelle Endowed Chair in the department of animal science and director of the Center for the Study of Fetal Programming, is lead writer of a paper titled "Multi-Generational Impact of Maternal Over-nutrition/Obesity in the Sheep on the Neonatal Leptin Surge in Granddaughters."

The multigenerational effects of over-nutrition during pregnancy on body fat levels, blood glucose and insulin concentrations have been studied in rodents, but it remains uncertain whether the same findings apply to large-animal species, including humans, that tend to bear a single fetus that is born after a greater degree of intra-uterine development, Ford said.

Ford's research makes those previously unknown factors more quantifiable.

"The most interesting thing is this is the first paper that looks at large mammals that gives attention in the phenotype or change in their propensity to get fat," Ford said. "This has been shown in rodents."

Ford and his colleagues compared 20 obese, over-nourished ewes with a control group of 20 ewes that were fed only to requirements. They examined how obesity and overfeeding affected the animals' daughters (referred to as F1s) and granddaughters (known as F2s). The researchers found that birth weight did not vary significantly among the granddaughters of the two treatment groups.

However, newborn lambs born to the daughters of over-nourished pregnant sheep — those that reached 70-80% beyond their normal weight — had higher adiposity or obesity levels and higher blood concentrations of glucose and insulin compared to granddaughters of the control group, the announcement said.

In several mammalian species, including sheep, there is a surge of leptin — a hormone involved in regulating appetite by organizing the brain structures that control appetite — during the first two to three weeks of postnatal life, which can be altered by diet-induced obesity.

This alteration occurs when the leptin surge does not occur in the newborn during the first few weeks after birth. As a result, the sheep is predisposed to having weight struggles because the mother was overweight during pregnancy, Ford said.

In this study, Ford and colleagues found that there was a lower leptin peak in the granddaughters of over-nourished sheep than in the granddaughters of the control group. This may make granddaughters of over-nourished sheep more susceptible to increased appetite, obesity and insulin and leptin resistance in adulthood, Ford said.

Ford said his study of sheep could easily correlate to people and their struggles with controlling weight.

Of pregnant women in the U.S., 18-35% are estimated to be clinically obese, according to the book Prevalence & Trends in Obesity Among U.S. Adults, 1999-2008 (2010).

Maternal obesity not only predisposes mothers to serious health problems during pregnancy but also increases the incidence of chronic metabolic diseases in their children and grandchildren. These include hyperphagia (overeating), insulin resistance, obesity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and cardiovascular disease.

Ford and his colleagues noted that further research is needed to fully understand the processes that govern these multigenerational effects and to explore whether and to what extent epigenetic mechanisms (whereby environmental factors program changes in gene expression) are involved.

In 2013, Ford was awarded a five-year, $1.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health to help reduce a national maternal obesity epidemic. The NIH grant augments Ford's ongoing research that previously demonstrated that pregnant sheep are a good model for the study of human obesity. Lambs born to obese ewes develop the same metabolic diseases exhibited by human babies, Ford said.

Volume:86 Issue:49

THERE are 805 million undernourished people in the world today, meaning that one in nine people do not get enough food to be healthy and lead an active life.

According to the U.N. World Food Programme, hunger and malnutrition are the number-one risk to health worldwide — greater than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined.

Overcoming malnutrition in all of its forms — caloric undernourishment, micronutrient deficiencies and obesity — requires a combination of interventions in different areas that guarantee the availability of and access to healthy diets, according to the U.N. Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO).

However, it also requires a coordinated global effort, and the time is now for bold action to end hunger and ensure adequate nutrition for all, FAO director-general Jose Graziano da Silva said Nov. 21 in closing remarks at the Second International Conference on Nutrition (ICN2), an inclusive, intergovernmental meeting on nutrition jointly organized by FAO and the World Health Organization (WHO).

"Malnutrition is the number-one cause of disease in the world," Graziano da Silva said. "If hunger were a contagious disease, we would have already cured it."

The conference brought together representatives from more than 170 governments — including more than 100 ministers and vice ministers — who affirmed their commitment to establish national policies aimed at eradicating malnutrition in all its forms and transforming food systems to make nutritious diets available to all.

More than 2,200 participants attended the meeting, including 150 representatives from civil society and nearly 100 from the business community.

"We have before us a decade of nutrition," Graziano da Silva added, referring to the upcoming Expo Milan 2015 with the theme "Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life."

He noted that food and nutrition security will also figure prominently in the U.N.'s post-2015 development agenda, which will replace the Millennium Development Goals that are coming to an end next year.

"This conference on nutrition is the beginning of our renewed effort," he said. "It will be acknowledged for having brought nutrition into the public sphere, making it a public, not a private, good."

"The political commitments made at ICN2 — the first to include solutions that will address malnutrition in all its forms, from hunger to obesity — are landmark. We look forward to working with member states and FAO to move ahead, without delay, through policies and actions that will change the lives of millions," said Oleg Chestnov, WHO assistant director-general for non-communicable diseases and mental health.

Throughout the three-day conference, Graziano da Silva and WHO director-general Margaret Chan stressed the importance of collaborating across sectors to respond to the nutrition challenges of the 21st century but made it clear that the fight against malnutrition ought to be led by national governments through concrete commitments and benchmarks.

At ICN2, governments adopted the Rome Declaration on Nutrition as well as a framework for action that provides far-reaching recommendations for national policy-makers to combat malnutrition and put healthy diets and environmental sustainability at the center of food production and distribution from farm to fork.

The Rome Declaration proclaims the right of every person to have access to safe, sufficient and nutritious food and commits governments to preventing malnutrition in all forms.

The framework recognizes that governments have the primary role and responsibility of addressing nutrition issues and challenges in dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders, including civil society, the private sector and affected communities.

Building on the declaration's commitments, goals and targets, the framework set 60 recommended actions governments may incorporate into their national nutrition, health, agriculture, education, development and investment plans and may consider when negotiating international agreements to achieve better nutrition for all.

According to FAO, the documents are the culmination of nearly a year of deliberations that included input from civil society and the private sector.

The Rome Declaration and framework "are the starting point of our renewed efforts to improve nutrition for all, but they are not the finishing line. Our responsibility is to transform the commitment into concrete results," Graziano da Silva said. "We have the knowledge, expertise and resources needed to overcome all forms of malnutrition.

"Governments must lead the way, but the push to improve global nutrition must be a joint effort involving civil society organizations and the private sector," he added.

 

New nutrition fund

"We need adequate finance to be able to put into practice the ICN2 framework for action," Graziano da Silva emphasized. "That is not a minor issue."

To support governments in transforming commitments into concrete actions, FAO established the Action for Nutrition Trust Fund, which will mobilize resources for programs and projects that foster enabling environments for nutrition, promote sustainable food systems and nutrition-enhancing trade, increase nutrition information, improve food safety and make nutrition part of stronger social safety nets.

To ensure accountability post-ICN2, the fund will also help countries build robust mechanisms to monitor progress on their nutrition commitments.

The steering committee of the trust fund will be hosted by FAO and will consist of, among others, major donors, civil society and private-sector representatives.

 

U.S. role

U.S. Department of Agriculture undersecretary for food, nutrition and consumer services Kevin Concannon represented the U.S. at the meeting in Rome, Italy, but Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack also recently addressed world hunger during a visit to Purdue University.

During remarks as part of Purdue's presidential lecture series, Vilsack urged the nation to share its expertise in agriculture and the research conducted at its universities with developing countries to help end world hunger.

Vilsack focused his message on what he called the opportunity for America to accept "the big challenge" of leading the effort to end global hunger amid a changing climate.

"It's obvious that if you feed more people and you have fewer hungry people, you're going to have a more secure world," he said. "I think it also provides an opportunity for a great nation to do a great thing. This country has a reputation of providing a helping hand, of helping developing countries develop into modern economies."

Vilsack said U.S. agriculture "is at the center of this" because of how productive it has become over the past century. The U.S. should pass its knowledge of agricultural productivity on to developing countries, he said, explaining that universities must play a vital role in the effort to end world hunger.

"Each great university has a responsibility not just to its students but to the world," Vilsack said, adding that Purdue has produced more than 15,000 patents.

That, he said, "is a suggestion of this extraordinary potential that universities have to plug into our efforts in climate, to plug into our efforts at global food security, to provide for a safe and better world."

Vilsack also noted that USDA, the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Agency for International Development are all collaborating on Feed the Future, an initiative to improve agricultural production and nutrition in 19 countries in Africa, Southeast Asia and Central America.

Volume:86 Issue:49

DO you ever wish your potato would bruise less or didn't turn brown after being peeled? So did researchers at J.R. Simplot Co., and they have created a new potato variety — Innate — that promises that and more.

After a decade of scientific development, safety assessments and extensive field tests, the U.S. Department of Agriculture recently gave its final stamp of approval to Simplot's first-generation genetically modified (GM) potato.

The potato was designed to reduce black spot from bruising and to lower asparagine, which reduces the potential for formation of acrylamide and decreases sugar content, thereby providing processors with a consistently golden French fry with fewer health concerns.

Innate potatoes have approximately 40% less bruising caused by impact and pressure during harvest and storage than conventional potatoes.

Doug Cole, director of marketing and communications at Simplot, said Russet potato growers utilize 60% of the crop as high-grade potatoes for table stock at supermarkets and restaurants. However, the rest is sold as lower-grade potatoes or is not useable because of bruising and browning.

With the Innate variety, 80% of the crop may be sold as high-grade potatoes, reducing waste by 135 million lb. annually. In addition, consumers throw away an estimated 3 billion lb. of potatoes each year because of sprouting, greening or bruising.

"If potatoes bruise half as often, a large portion will also not be wasted at the consumer level," Cole noted.

Asparagine is an amino acid that is found in many vegetables, and some varieties of potatoes have higher concentrations.

When heated to high temperatures in the presence of certain sugars, asparagine can form acrylamide — a probable carcinogen, according to the Food & Drug Administration. High-temperature cooking methods, such as frying, baking or broiling, have been found to produce acrylamide.

Cole explained that Innate potatoes have reduced asparagine, thus reducing acrylamide by as much as 70% in the first-generation potato (Simplot's next generation offers up to a 90% reduction). This creates a healthier end product for consumers, he said.

 

Technology at work

Unlike the methods used in other biotech crops, the Innate potato does not have genes inserted from other species but instead contains genes from wild and cultivated potatoes — grown naturally just like conventional potatoes — and, thus, introduces no new potential allergens.

Dave Douches, professor and plant breeder at Michigan State University, said the process identifies DNA segments associated with genes and modifies or silences them so the desired effects are achieved.

Researchers identified the segments by studying wild and current potato plants and inserted the gene sequence into the potato. As the plant recognizes the sequence, it triggers a signal to suppress naturally occurring enzymes — a process called RNA interference.

No foreign genes are added; just the two traits are suppressed. "Essentially, the 'volume' of the traits is turned down," Simplot said. "Rather than a random method, the Innate method is precise."

University of Idaho professor Joe Guenthner explained that conventional potato breeding is a numbers game. The selection procedure to figure out which one of the randomly crossed breeds has the desired characteristics results in a "lot of wishing, hoping, screening and evaluating," whereas biotechnology is much faster.

Because conventional potato varieties are not inbred and do not breed true, using traditional breeding methods is a lengthy and complex process that can take 12-15 years and 1 million progeny to find a successful commercial variety.

 

Environmental benefits

Simplot is also working on a second-generation Innate potato that offers blight resistance and low reducing sugars, which enables cold storage.

Late blight — the culprit behind the Irish potato famine — still has devastating effects on potato crops around the world. Cole noted that the disease was particularly bad in the Midwest this year.

Although the Innate potato was developed with a stronger focus on consumer benefits, the trait for late blight resistance offers tremendous environmental benefits.

Douches said in Europe, despite a long-standing slow acceptance of biotechnology, public and private partnerships are creating late blight-resistant GM potatoes because of the positive effects on food safety and economics by saving farmers money on fungicides.

Fungicides sometimes have to be applied every five days and take as many as 10-15 applications depending on the disease pressure that year, Douches explained. The biotech potato results in saving farmers time and money in the form of fewer fungicide applications.

Cross-pollination is also not an issue with the commercial potato crop, and wild potatoes are not only rare but also are not frequented by honeybees, Cole said.

 

Market acceptance

Biotech potatoes aren't new to the marketplace. In 1995, Monsanto introduced its NewLeaf GM potato, which was resistant to the Colorado potato beetle that was problematic in the 1990s.

Guenthner said GM potato plantings increased steadily, but then the market crashed, and Monsanto withdrew the product in the early 2000s.

Simplot expects to license Innate potatoes to select partners for test markets in 2015. Cole said the company is focusing on non-export markets such as fresh whole and freshly cut potatoes, as well as potato chips, because of the non-browning trait and areas where the value of reduced bruising and asparagine is significant.

Douches said the only downside of the new Innate potato is market concerns. McDonald's has already reaffirmed its long-held policy of not sourcing GM potatoes, which the fast-food giant instituted after NewLeaf acceptance went sour. Also, it will take some education to bring the international market to a point of acceptance.

Douches said the anti-biotech argument — that multinational corporations like Monsanto and Syngenta are just trying to make money and not thinking of consumers — doesn't hold water with Simplot. He said the direction Simplot has taken created a more sustainable product that also offers consumer benefits.

Simplot's approach of using genes from the potato instead of other plants addresses many fears regarding biotechnology, Douches added.

Douches said it's quite ironic that a potato has been made safer through genetic engineering by tackling the problem of a harmful, toxic chemical that's created during the frying process, which likely would be held up by those who are wary of eating the GM potato due to "unfounded fears of a technology that's been around for decades."

Guenthner said Simplot has invested lots of money and hopes to provide a product from which everyone in the marketing chain can benefit, from seed producers to consumers.

"I think consumers should trust in science and not in political rhetoric and headline hysteria," he added.

It's important for consumers to look at the source of the message to see if it's science based rather than politically biased.

Volume:86 Issue:48

THE 2014 harvest was expected to result in ample supplies, alleviating tight stocks, specifically for soybeans.

While it is clear that this will be realized, several factors have slowed the process of getting the crops on line, resulting in a prolonged tight supply situation.

A new report from Rabobank said four key supply constraints have contributed to the slow accumulation of the physical crop inventories: a late harvest, on-farm storage, market incentives for commercial storage and delays in rail transportation. The report authors also suggested that these issues would not likely be resolved until the end of the first quarter of 2015.

"While the harvests will be nearly completed by the end of November, we expect the combination of storage and transportation issues to restrict grain flow and to drive a post-harvest cash premium through (the first quarter of) 2015," they wrote.

This year's corn harvest has been the slowest since 2009 (Figure), which will exacerbate grain flow challenges, but reluctant farmer selling is actually the most critical factor in determining grain flow for the 2014-15 crop.

According to the report, the U.S. started November with available corn stocks down 1 billion bu. — or 18% — compared to year-earlier levels, which included 2013 stocks that were hampered by the 2012 drought.

"Although the 2014 corn harvest is progressing and will likely be completed before December, many elevators report slow progress in filling commercial storage due to farmers' preference to store on farm," the report explains.

The main driver of this has been a reluctance to sell below breakeven prices, which Rabobank estimated to be in the $4.20-4.50/bu. range for a median farmer in the Midwest. Rabobank said it expects 64-68% of stocks to be on farms as of Dec. 1, with flat to 12% lower off-farm storage.

"With significant stocks not yet priced, there is a high probability that cash prices will drop significantly when grain flow increases," the authors suggested. However, they predicted that a cash premium reflecting the risk of selling unpriced grain would likely develop for the portion of the crop put into storage through the first quarter of 2015.

"Rationalizing corn storage from the 2014 season with new crop production of 2015-16 is expected to drive price volatility," the authors stated.

Additionally, they suggested that significant liquidation of the 2014-15 crop may be delayed until March and July as higher profit margins over the past six years mean that farmers are in a financial position to hold the 2014-15 corn crop at least into the second quarter of 2015.

"March is the normal period when cash is needed for operational expenses," they wrote.

In addition, the report notes that late crops tend to be stored wet, which increases the need to liquidate storage in the spring to avoid spoilage loss. "Consequently, we expect to see crop sales increase in March, which will pressure cash bids lower," the authors added.

Conversely, futures prices will be driven by the possibility for fewer corn acres in 2015, Rabobank said. "Widening new-crop to old-crop spreads will be key as the value of the 2014 crop in storage varies depending on expectations for the size of new-crop production," the report says. If normal planting and pollination occur, July will be the next key period for increasing grain flow after March.

Soybeans ended the 2013-14 marketing year in an extremely tight supply situation, and many stakeholders were banking on the fact that the 2014 harvest would quickly replenish stocks.

The delayed harvest, however, has caused price rallies in both soybeans and soybean meal. Since Oct. 1, Rabobank said soybean futures have rallied $1.50/bu. (13.9%), while soybean meal futures have rallied $100 per ton (38.4%). Additionally, the report authors said the basis levels for soybeans and soy products have rebounded from their October lows.

Tight soybean and product supplies are not expected to ease until late November or early December.

"Both crushers and buyers have been living hand-to-mouth, anticipating the big harvest to fill the pipeline and drive both futures and basis lower, which has not occurred yet," the report explains. "To exacerbate the delay in harvest, the well-documented U.S. rail logistics issues have starved the broiler and hog producers of soybean meal in the U.S. Southeast."

"U.S. rail transportation will likely play a role in grain flow, depending on the severity of the 2015 winter," the report adds. "One- to two-week delays are reported in North Dakota and South Dakota, with similar delays in the Southeast."

According to the report, lack of corn movement to destination areas such as the Southeast will magnify grain deficits created by the late harvest and storage.

Furthermore, the authors pointed out that the high cost of rail transportation, which they calculated to be $1.00-1.40/bu. in the northern Plains, will encourage farmers to store grains in those areas.

"However, January and February will be the riskiest months for significant grain flow disruptions as severe winter weather could cause further rail problems," they said.

 

Crop prices

The University of Missouri's Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) recently released its November update of U.S. crop price projections for 2014-18, which indicated only small changes from the October estimates for most crops.

The projected corn price for the 2014-15 marketing year was increased slightly to $3.50/bu. after the U.S. Department of Agriculture's November "Crop Production" report slightly reduced its estimate of this year's record U.S. corn crop.

Reduced corn acreage and an assumed return to trend-line yields resulted in smaller projected corn supplies in 2015, which FAPRI said allows corn prices to recover to $3.89/bu. for the 2015-16 marketing year and to exceed $4.00/bu. from 2016 to 2018.

Offsetting increases in soybean production and use leave projected 2014-15 soybean prices at $10.00/bu., very close to last month's estimate, according to the FAPRI update.

Soybean acreage could stay near this year's record in 2015, and the resulting large soybean supplies will cause projected 2015-16 prices to drop to $9.10/bu., FAPRI said. From 2016 to 2018, it projected soybean prices to average around $10/bu.

The wheat outlook was also mostly unchanged from October. FAPRI projected wheat prices to decline from $5.90/bu. for 2014-15 to $5.36/bu. in 2015-16 and to remain below $6/bu. through 2018.

 

Brazil drought

Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to occur later than usual due to a drought that has delayed planting, grain crushing industry association Abiove recently told Reuters.

Brazil's main center-west grain belt has been experiencing dry weather, which has delayed soybean planting and even resulted in some replanting. Depending on how things go in the next few weeks, the area could end up being 20-30 days delayed.

Key growing regions have gotten rain showers over the past couple of months. While this was expected to continue, the planting delay would place harvest right at one of the rainiest periods of the year, possibly causing harvest delays due to wet fields.

 

Market recap

Harvest progress was the main focus of the markets last week as U.S. farmers neared completion. USDA reported that 89% of corn and 94% of soybeans had been harvested as of Nov. 16. Grain movement also seemed to be improving, alleviating concerns about the prolonged tight supply.

Both corn and soybean prices fell from Monday through Wednesday last week. Despite nearby soybean futures closing higher on Monday at $10.3625/bu., the market couldn't find much to sustain those levels, and by Wednesday, January soybeans had plunged to settle at $10.0475/bu.

Corn also closed lower last Monday through Wednesday. Harvest progress was a large reason for the losses, but slower demand was also a contributing factor. December corn settled at $3.775/bu. last Monday and continued to slip, closing at $3.6325/bu. on Wednesday.

USDA's weekly export report changed the story last Thursday, however, revealing better-than-expected demand for both corn and soybean meal.

Soybeans were excluded from the reports of increased demand, but sales announcements stepped in to boost soybean prices.

December corn closed higher at $3.7325/bu. last Thursday, and nearby soybeans closed at $10.205/bu.

Volume:86 Issue:48

TURKEY is good for more than Thanksgiving dinner: The biological machinery needed to produce a potentially life-saving antibiotic is found in turkeys.

Brigham Young University microbiologist Joel Griffitts, whose team is exploring how the turkey-born antibiotic comes to be, said, "The good bacteria we're studying has been keeping turkey farms healthy for years, and it has the potential to keep humans healthy as well."

The good bacteria, known as Strain 115, produces the MP1 antibiotic, which could target staph infections, strep throat, severe gastrointestinal diseases and roughly half of all infectious bacteria. This antibiotic, however, is not in widespread use because of its complex structure.

Griffitts, colleague Rich Robison and graduate student Philip Bennallack have been using mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to identify how Strain 115 makes this antibiotic and how it manages to do so without killing itself. What they're finding is that the mechanism for producing it is surprisingly simple.

They found the engine inside of Strain 115, a compact DNA molecule also known as a plasmid, produces both the killer antibiotic and a self-protecting agent. It makes a "spare" ribosome part that, when inserted into a normal ribosome, renders it immune to the antibiotic.

"It's sort of like outfitting a car with special tires that protect against unusual road hazards," Griffitts said.

Now-retired Brigham Young professor Marcus Jensen discovered Strain 115 more than three decades ago and went on to develop three vaccines vital to the prevention of diseases in turkeys. His research moved in new directions, and the strain was set aside in 1983.

Some 30 years later, a student found the strain in a freezer, and now, with mentoring from Robison and Griffitts, the group has published its new findings in the Journal of Bacteriology.

Volume:86 Issue:49

The following prices, which include delivery, were obtained Nov. 25 from feed and grain vendors in the U.S. and Canada. The prices represent current trading values but are not guaranteed. Second column shows the amount of change since the previous week. Prices of certain products can vary depending on the processing method used. N-Nominal. N/A-Price not available.
OILSEED PRODUCTS
(dollars per ton)
Soybean meal
(high-protein)
Atlanta	N/A	-
Boston	N/A	-
Buffalo	504.00	14.00
Chicago	440.00	-8.00
Delmarva	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	456.00	39.00
Kansas City	400.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Memphis	N/A	-
Minneapolis	389.20	16.20
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Portland	501.50	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Twin Falls	511.00	12.00
Soybean meal
(low-protein)
Atlanta	N/A	-
Boston	N/A	-
Buffalo	500.00	-
Chicago	428.00	-8.00
Delmarva	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Kansas City	400.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Memphis	N/A	-
Minneapolis	N/A	-
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Portland	N/A	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Soybean hulls
Atlanta	N/A	-
Buffalo*	200.00	5.00
Chicago	140.00	-
Fayetteville, NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth*	185.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Minneapolis	150.00	-
Okeechobee	N/A	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Twin Falls	215.00	-
* unpelleted
Whole cottonseed
Atlanta	N/A	-
Buffalo	276.00	11.00
Chicago	253.00	3.00
Delmarva	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	250.00	-
Los Angeles	368.00	-
Lubbock	240.00	5.00
Memphis	225.00	3.00
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Portland	367.50	-
San Francisco	368.00	-
Twin Falls	355.00	5.00
Cottonseed meal
Atlanta	N/A	-
Chicago	375.00	-
Delmarva	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	375.00	-
Kansas City	350.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Lubbock	380.00	40.00
Memphis	350.00	20.00
Okeechobee	N/A	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Cottonseed hulls
Atlanta	N/A	-
Chicago	190.00	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Lubbock	N/A	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Canola meal
Buffalo	N/A	-
Minneapolis	333.90	-
Los Angeles	430.00	-
Montreal	N/A	-
Portland	349.00	-
San Francisco	430.00	-
Twin Falls	395.00	28.00
Vancouver	292.00	-
Sunflower seed meal
Fargo	220.00	-
Minneapolis	220.00	-
Linseed  meal
Atlanta	N/A	-
Chicago	315.00	-
Fargo	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Kansas City	335.00	5.00
Minneapolis	290.00	-
Safflower meal
Los Angeles	N/A	-
San Francisco	225.00	-
ANIMAL BYPRODUCTS
(dollars per ton)
Meat and bone meal
(ruminant)
Buffalo	N/A	-
Chicago	410.00	-
Delmarva	485.00	15.00
Fayetteville NC	440.00	5.00
Ft. Worth	400.00	10.00
Kansas City	375.00	-
Los Angeles	375.00	-
Memphis	430.00	20.00
Minneapolis	375.00	10.00
Portland	357.50	-
San Francisco	375.00	-
Meat and bone meal
(porcine)
Fayetteville NC	520.00	50.00
Los Angeles	420.00	-
Memphis	500.00	40.00
Minneapolis	435.00	35.00
Flash-dried blood meal
(ruminant)
Fayetteville NC	1450.00	100.00
Los Angeles	1400.00	-
Memphis	1400.00	100.00
Minneapolis	1375.00	25.00
Flash-dried blood meal
(porcine)
Fayetteville NC	1500.00	100.00
Memphis	1475.00	100.00
Minneapolis	1425.00	25.00
Poultry byproduct meal
(feed grade)
Atlanta	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	450.00	-
Ft. Worth	320.00	-
Kansas City	N/A	-
Los Angeles	507.00	-
Memphis	450.00	-
Poultry byproduct meal
(pet food grade)
Memphis	700.00	-
Fayetteville NC	700.00	-
Hydrolized feather meal
Atlanta	600.00	-50.00
Delmarva	650.00	-10.00
Fayetteville NC	600.00	-25.00
Ft. Worth	650.00	-
Kansas City	745.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Memphis	600.00	-25.00
Minneapolis	725.00	-
Menhaden fish meal
Atlanta	N/A	-
Buffalo	N/A	-
Chicago	1625.00	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Kansas City	N/A	-
Memphis	1850.00	100.00
Minneapolis	N/A	-
Twin Falls	N/A	-
Blended tuna meal
Los Angeles	N/A	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Anchovy  meal
Los Angeles	N/A	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
ANIMAL FAT, GREASE
(cents per pound)
Prime Tallow
Chicago	28.50	-0.50
Ft. Worth	N/A	-0.50
Los Angeles	27.75	-
San Francisco	25.00	-
Yellow grease
Buffalo	N/A	-
Chicago	28.00	-
Delmarva	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	29.00	-
Ft. Worth	28.00	-
Kansas City	34.75	-
Los Angeles	26.75	-
Memphis	29.00	-
Minneapolis	28.50	-
San Francisco	24.00	-
Choice white grease
Chicago	31.00	-2.00
Minneapolis	31.00	-
Bleachable fancy tallow
Buffalo	N/A	-
Chicago	32.00	-2.00
Ft. Worth	30.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Minneapolis	35.50	1.00
San Francisco	N/A	-
Vegetable-animal blend
Ft. Worth	29.00	-
Los Angeles	24.25	-
Minneapolis	29.00	-
San Francisco	24.25	-
Poultry grease
(feed grade)
Delmarva	25.00	-1.00
Fayetteville NC	28.00	-
Memphis	28.00	-
Poultry grease
(pet food grade)
Memphis	34.00	-
Fayetteville NC	34.00	-
GLUTEN, HOMINY
(dollars per ton)
Corn gluten meal
Buffalo	N/A	-
Chicago	625.00	-8.00
Kansas City	680.00	-
Los Angeles	680.00	-
Corn gluten feed
Buffalo	163.00	5.00
Chicago	125.00	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Kansas City	170.00	-
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Twin Falls	N/A	-
Wahpeton	N/A	-
Hominy feed
Atlanta	N/A	-
Boston	N/A	-
Buffalo	154.00	-
Chicago	93.00	3.00
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Kansas City	105.00	-
Los Angeles	186.00	-
Okeechobee	N/A	-
San Francisco	186.00	-
Twin Falls	191.00	-
BREWERS, DISTILLERS
(dollars per ton)
Brewers dried grains
Chicago	N/A	-
Kansas City	N/A	-
Malt Sprouts
Chicago	170.00	-
Milwaukee	170.00	-
Winona, Minn	170.00	-
Distillers dried grains
Atlanta	N/A	-
Boston	N/A	-
Buffalo	145.00	-5.00
Chicago	115.00	-5.00
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Kansas City	135.00	-
Los Angeles	205.00	-
Minneapolis	110.00	10.00
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Portland	205.50	-
San Francisco	205.00	-
Twin Falls	217.00	7.00
Brewers yeast
(dollars per pound, sacked)
Chicago	0.75	-
Milwaukee	0.75	-
Minneapolis	0.75	-
ALFALFA
(dollars per ton)
Dehydrated pellets
(17% protein)
Alfalfa Center	275.00	-
Buffalo	375.00	-
Chicago	355.00	-
Kansas City	300.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Minneapolis	265.00	-
Toledo	385.00	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Suncured pellets
(15% protein)
Atlanta	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	250.00	5.00
Kansas City	260.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Portland	310.00	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
WHEAT MILLFEEDS
Shorts
Chicago	150.00	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Millrun
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Portland	175.00	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Twin Falls	155.00	-
Bran
Buffalo	162.00	10.00
Chicago	140.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Minneapolis	N/A	-
Middlings
Buffalo	132.00	10.00
Chicago	130.00	-5.00
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Kansas City	105.00	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Memphis	165.00	-15.00
Minneapolis	100.00	10.00
Okeechobee	N/A	-
DAIRY BYPRODUCTS
(dollars per hundredweight)
Dried skim milk
Ft. Worth	127.75	-
Minneapolis	127.75	-
Dried buttermilk
Ft. Worth	107.50	-
Minneapolis	107.50	-
Whole whey
Chicago	58.50	-0.38
Ft. Worth	58.50	-
Kansas City	57.75	0.25
Minneapolis	58.50	-
Whey protein concentrate
Ft. Worth	126.25	-
Milwaukee	126.25	-
Lactose
Ft. Worth	40.00	-
Minneapolis	40.00	-
OATS, RICE PRODUCTS
(dollars per ton)
Rolled oats
Chicago	520.00	-
Kansas City	500.00	-
Minneapolis	502.00	-
Crimped oats
Chicago	430.00	-10.00
Kansas City	365.00	-
Minneapolis	432.00	-
Pulverized oats
Chicago	150.00	-5.00
Minneapolis	138.00	-
Reground oat feed
Chicago	87.00	2.00
Kansas City	65.00	-
Minneapolis	72.00	-
Oats
(dollars per bushel)
Buffalo	3.85	-0.15
Minneapolis	3.68	-
Portland*	275.00	-
(*per ton)
Rice bran
Atlanta	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	185.00	-
Freeport	N/A	-
Kansas City	148.00	-
Memphis	N/A	-
San Francisco	168.00	-
Stuttgart, Ark.	N/A	-
Rice millfeeds
Atlanta	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	115.00	-
Freeport	N/A	-
Kansas City	110.00	-
Memphis	N/A	-
Stuttgart, Ark.	N/A	-
Rice hulls
Ft. Worth	75.00	-
Kansas City	75.00	-
DRIED PULP
(dollars per ton)
Citrus pulp pellets
Atlanta	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Los Angeles*	N/A	-
*(sold wet)
Beet pulp pellets
Atlanta	N/A	-
Boise	N/A	-
Chicago	220.00	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Kansas City	470.00	-
Minneapolis	160.00	-
Portland	220.00	-
Saginaw	175.00	-
Beet pulp shreds
Mpls (sacked)	340.00	-
Los Angeles*	N/A	-
San Francisco	N/A	-
Twin Falls	N/A	-
*bulk, wet
GRAINS
Barley feed
Kansas City (bu.)	4.40	-
Los Angeles (cwt)	N/A	-
Portland (ton)	196.00	-
San Francisco (cwt)	N/A	-
Feed wheat
Atlanta (bu.)	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC (bu.)	N/A	-
Kansas City (bu)	5.30	0.04
Los Angeles (cwt)	N/A	-
San Francisco (cwt)	N/A	-
Corn
(dollars per bushel)
Atlanta	N/A	-
Boston	N/A	-
Buffalo (per ton)	152.00	7.00
Chicago	3.72	-0.02
Delmarva	4.05	0.05
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Kansas City	3.33	0.03
Los Angeles*	N/A	-
San Fran (rail)*	N/A	-
San Fran (truck)*	N/A	-
Memphis	3.90	0.21
Minneapolis	3.05	-
Okeechobee	N/A	-
Portland (per ton)	191.63	0.00
(*per cwt)
Milo
(dollars per bushel)
Atlanta	N/A	-
Fayetteville NC	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Kansas City	3.63	-
Los Angeles*	N/A	-
Memphis	4.50	0.81
*(per cwt.)
Ground grain screenings
(dollars per ton)
Ft.  Worth	150.00	3.00
Kansas City	75.00	-
OTHER
(dollars per ton)
Almond hulls
Los Angeles	181.00	-
San Francisco	154.00	-
Bakery feed
Atlanta	170.00	-
Buffalo	156.00	-
Fayetteville NC	175.00	-
Memphis	165.00	-
Minneapolis	170.00	-
Feed urea
Buffalo	N/A	-
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Minneapolis	N/A	-
Salt
Kansas City	48.50	-
Los Angeles	50.00	-
Cane molasses
Ft. Worth	N/A	-
Houston	150.00	-
Kansas City	187.50	-
Los Angeles	N/A	-
Memphis	N/A	-
Minneapolis	197.50	-
New Orleans	152.50	-
San Francisco	N/A	-

 

Volume:86 Issue:49