The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly hogs and pigs report has been a mainstay for the hog industry for decades. Right now, though, it has never seemed more confusing, according to Dave Bauer, senior market analyst for Provimi.
Per the inventory results this quarter, the number of hogs that are supposed to be showing up at slaughterhouses, 9.8% over last year, don't seem to be matching up with what's actually showing up. And yes, producers have performed what one analyst has called magic and erased as many as 1 million pigs from our memories. This is where the revisions that USDA typically applies to past quarterly reports could help to perform the magic of now syncing up the numbers with the reality of what's actually coming to slaughter. But to quickly summarize the report didn't reflect the kind of shrinking inventory that Bauer feels needs to be seen. He also doesn’t believe we can export our way out of this supply dilemma even though recent price rallies are betting we can.
What going on with African swine fever in Germany.
What's the word on forward profitability?
Take a listen as Bauer walks us through all that.
As Bauer points out, these are uncertain times and it will pay dividends to be well-prepared. If you have questions on this week’s recap or want to discuss something not covered, feel free to ASK DAVE at David_Bauer@cargill.com. Plan today for tomorrow’s success.