The impact of the mid-February winter storm that caused disruption to broiler production in Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana and Oklahoma has surfaced in both broiler slaughter data as well as hatchery data, according to the latest USDA “Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.”

USDA economists Kim Ha and Grace Grossen relayed that a number of broiler houses, processing plants, and hatching operations were all affected. For the week ending February 20, 2021—the height of the storm—preliminary broiler slaughter data indicates a 43.9% year-over-year decrease in broiler processing volumes.

“There have been reports that the industry attempted to make up for the reduced slaughter that week through increased shifts and weekend slaughter in the following week, which subsequent-week data affirms by a 4.4 % year-over-year increase in slaughter.”

Still, the preliminary slaughter data points to notably lower slaughter volumes in February year over year. Eggs set and chick placement data further indicates fewer birds available for slaughter, likely into April. As a result, USDA lower first-half production forecast to 22.080 billion pounds. Production for 2021 is forecast to total 44.780 billion pounds, less than a half-percent higher than 2020 production.

USDA estimates January ready-to-cook broiler production at 3.6 billion pounds, down 8.7% year over year, but up slightly by 0.4% when adjusted for two fewer slaughter days relative to last January. Ha and Grossen said this increase was driven by slightly higher bird weights, which averaged 6.43 pounds, up fractionally by 0.3% year over year. January slaughter volumes (adjusted for slaughter days) were nearly level with 2020 at 37.3 million birds per day.

Sanderson Farms said in early March that it was going to have approximately 1.6 million fewer chickens to process at its Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas processing plants over the next ten weeks due to the weather. Joe Sanderson, Jr., chairman and chief executive officer of Sanderson Farms, said the losses represented just under 1% of the head the company had expected to process during its second fiscal quarter.

Preliminary weekly data from USDA Agricultural Marketing Service also suggest that the winter storm had a negative impact on turkey production.

Based on January’s production and placement data, USDA adjusted its 2021 turkey production forecast down by 15 million pounds in the first quarter, 10 million pounds in the second quarter, and 5 million pounds in each of the third and fourth quarters. This makes the 2021 total production forecast 5.69 billion pounds, a 1% decrease compared to 2020.