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Weekly Export Sales: Wheat tracks higher

Corn and soybeans fall below trade estimates.

The latest export report from USDA showed some bullish progress for wheat sales, but corn and soybeans turned in less-than-impressive results for the week ending Nov. 1. China remains an enigmatic customer amid its ongoing trade conflict with the U.S., according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.


 
“China booked another load of soybeans last week but cancelled another, keeping new sales minimal,” he says. “Processors look like they have big inventories to use as supplies out of Brazil wind down, with imports in September and October up 7.5% vs 2017. Wheat sales are looking better, which may convince USDA to stick to its forecast in today’s update.”
 
Corn exports found another 27.6 million bushels in old crop sales last week, moving ahead of the prior week’s tally of 15.5 million bushels but falling below trade estimates of 29.5 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts moved higher, to 34.9 million bushels.
 
Corn export shipments of 53.3 million bushels outpaced the prior week’s results by 80% and exceeded the four-week average by 16%. Japan was the top destination, with 15.4 million bushels.
 
For the 2018/19 marketing year, which began September 1, Mexico remains the top destination for U.S. corn export commitments, accounting for 33% of the total. Other top destinations include Japan (17%), unknown destinations (9%), South Korea (9%) and Colombia (5%).
 
Soybean exports saw 14.3 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 100,000 bushels in new crop sales for a total of 14.4 million bushels. Totals eased slightly from the prior week’s tally of 14.6 million bushels and fell moderately below trade estimates of 20.2 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts moved higher, to 21.3 million bushels.
 
Soybean export shipments last week totaled 41.7 million bushels, falling 14% below the prior week but remaining 2% ahead of the four-week average. The Netherlands were the top destination, accounting for 5.2 million bushels.
 
For the 2018/19 marketing year, which began September 1, unknown destinations account for 28% of total U.S. soybean export commitments. Other top destinations include Mexico (15%), the European Union (11%) and Argentina (6%). China remains a minor customer of U.S. soybeans this marketing year, accounting for just 4% of total commitments.
 
Wheat export sales posted another healthy round of results with another 24.3 million bushels last week. That total bested the prior week’s total of 24.3 million bushels and moderately exceeded trade estimates of 16.5 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts eased slightly, to 17.2 million bushels.
 
Wheat export shipments of 12.1 million bushels fell 21% below the prior four-week average. Saudi Arabia was the top destination, with 2.4 million bushels. So far in the 2018/19 marketing year, the Philippines represent the top destination for U.S. wheat export commitments, accounting for 15% of the total. Other top destinations include Japan (12%), Mexico (12%), South Korea (7%), unknown destinations (5%) and Nigeria (5%).

 

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