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Weekly Export Sales: Slipping below USDA forecasts

Weekly Export Sales: Slipping below USDA forecasts

Corn, soybeans and wheat all post so-so tallies last week.

Another round of USDA export sales is in the books, and the latest report, covering the week ending May 9, didn’t contain any market-shaking data.

“Export sales last week were decent, meeting or exceeding trade expectations, but the totals for corn and soybeans continue to fall below the rates needed to reach USDA’s forecast for the 2018 marketing years,” according to Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr.

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Soybeans found 13.6 million bushels of old crop sales last week, plus another 11.1 million in new crop sales, for a total of 24.8 million bushels. That is well ahead of the prior week’s tally of 5.4 million bushels and slightly above trade estimates of 23.9 million bushels. The weekly pace needed to match USDA old crop sales is now 7.1 million bushels.

“Soybean numbers remain under pressure from lack of new Chinese interest – the world’s largest imported added less than 200,000 bushels of net new purchases,” Knorr says. “China still has 265 million bushels of unshipped sales, which likely will wind up elsewhere if a trade deal isn’t cobbled together this summer.”

Soybean export shipments reached 34.3 million bushels last week – in line with the weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts, now at 34.3 million bushels. As the 2018/19 marketing year winds down, China leads all destinations for U.S. soybean export commitments by accounting for 29% of the total. Other top destinations include the European Union (16%), Mexico (10%) Egypt (5%) and Japan (5%).

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Corn notched 21.8 million bushels in old crop sales last week, plus another 3.2 million bushels in new crop sales, for a total of 25.0 million bushels. That was well above the prior week’s tally of 11.6 million bushels and moderately ahead of trade estimates of 19.7 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts moved higher, to 28.4 million bushels.

Corn export shipments reached 40.5 million bushels last week, pushing the weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts up to 52.7 million bushels. For the 2018/19 marketing year, Mexico leads all destinations for U.S. corn export commitments by accounting for 32% of the total. Other top destinations include Japan (22%), Colombia (9%) and South Korea (8%).

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Wheat found 4.2 million bushels in old crop sales and 15.4 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 19.6 million bushels. That was slightly ahead of the prior week’s total of 18.5 million bushels and moderately ahead of trade estimates of 13.8 million bushels. With about three weeks to go in the 2018/19 marketing year, old crop sales have already met USDA’s forecasts.

Wheat export shipments were for 16.7 million bushels last week, which is still far behind the weekly rate needed to match USDA forecasts, which is now at 35.6 million bushels. Mexico and the Philippines are the top destinations for U.S. wheat export commitments this marketing year, with both countries accounting for 13% of the total. Other top destinations include Japan (11%), Nigeria (6%), South Korea (6%) Indonesia (6%) and Taiwan (4%).

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