China’s tariffs will reduce U.S. soybean exports. Projected record soybean production in 2018 also contributes to a sharp increase in ending stocks. The marketing year average (MYA) price for soybeans falls to $8.73/bu. in 2018-19, the lowest level since 2006-07.

In 2018-19, corn MYA prices increase to $3.62/bu., and wheat prices increase to $5.12/bu. A reduced South American corn harvest in early 2018 boosts short‐term U.S. corn exports, and smaller wheat crops in Europe, Australia and other countries support wheat prices.

Soybean area falls by almost 5 million acres in 2019 as soybean returns drop relative to those for competing crops. Corn and wheat areas each increase by about 2 million acres in 2019.

For the 2019-20 to 2023-24 period, projected soybean prices average a little over $9/bu., wheat a little over $5/bu. and corn a little under $4/bu.

Reduced U.S. production and continued strong export demand cause the 2018-19 upland cotton MYA price to reach 75 cents/lb.

Projected ethanol production is relatively stable, given the assumption that implementation of the Renewable Fuel Standard follows recent practice, including small refinery waivers.

Cattle prices decline from 2018 to 2020 as production continues to increase. Live hog prices remain below $45/cwt. for three straight years as production continues to expand and tariffs slow growth in U.S. exports.

Milk prices drop below $17/cwt. in 2018 as U.S. milk production increases and international markets weaken.

Consumer food price inflation increases to 1.6% in 2018 as the index of prices for food consumed at home increases for the first time in three years.