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Hog farm barns pigs FDS operation.JPG National Pork Board

Meat production forecast lowered by USDA

Hog price forecast for 2020 reduced but beef, broiler and turkey price forecasts raised.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2020 forecast for total meat production to 106.49 billion pounds in the August “World Agricultural and Supply Demands Estimates” report. Decreases in pork production more than offset higher beef and poultry production, the agency said.

USDA raised beef production to 27.03 billion pounds, which USDA said largely reflects a faster pace of steer and heifer slaughter.

The forecast for pork production forecast was reduced to 28.36 billion pounds on a slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and lighter carcass weights for the year.

Broiler and turkey production were nearly unchanged at 44.67 billion pounds and 5.69 billion pounds, respectively.

The 2020 egg production forecast was raised to 9.22 billion dozen eggs based upon hatchery data.

For 2021, the red meat and poultry production forecast was left unchanged from the previous month, at 107.99 billion pounds. The 2021 beef production forecast was reduced from the previous month, to 27.62 billion pounds. USDA said lower expected placements in the first half of the year will be reflected in lower forecast slaughter in the second half of 2021.

The 2021 broiler production forecast was raised to 45.275 billion pounds from last month due to lower feed costs. Pork and turkey production forecasts were unchanged at 28.57 billion pounds and 5.77 billion pounds, respectively, while the egg production forecast was raised from last month to 9.385 billion doz.

USDA raised its 2020 fed cattle price forecast to $107.30/cwt. but left its 2021 forecast unchanged from last month at $110/cwt. The 2020 hog price forecast was lowered to $38.10/cwt. on recent price pressure, but the 2021 price forecast was unchanged at $44/cwt. The broiler price forecast for 2020 was raised fractionally to 70.4 cents/lb. on a higher forecast third quarter price. The forecast for 2021 was unchanged at 81 cents/lb. The turkey price forecast for 2020 was raised to $1.055/lb. while the 2021 turkey price forecast was unchanged at $1.05/lb. The 2020 egg price forecast was reduced to $1.144/doz. on recent price weakness and supply pressure. Egg price forecasts for 2021 were also reduced to $1.10/doz. as large supplies are expected to weigh on the market.

USDA raised the milk production forecast for 2020 from last month to 221.8 billion lbs. as higher expected growth in milk per cow more than offsets slightly lower dairy cow numbers. For 2021, the milk production forecast was reduced slightly to 225.3 billion lbs. on slower growth in cow numbers.

Cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price 2020 forecasts were reduced from last month while the whey price forecast was unchanged. The Class III price forecast was reduced on lower cheese prices, while the Class IV price forecast was reduced on lower butter and NDM price forecasts. The all milk price forecast was lowered to $17.95/cwt.

Price forecasts for cheese and butter in 2021 were lowered from the previous month, while the whey forecast was increased. The NDM price forecast was unchanged. The Class III price forecast was reduced as the lower cheese price more than offsets the higher whey price forecast. The Class IV price forecast was reduced on a lower butter price forecast. The 2021 all milk price forecast was unchanged at $17.05/cwt.

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