Beef: Feeder cattle movement remained brisk throughout August and appears to be holding up well into early September. Reports of lighter calves entering auction barns earlier than expected mostly have been a function of ongoing dryness throughout much of cattle country,  with 21% of cattle inventories estimated to be in an area experiencing drought conditions. Easing rains throughout parts of the Midwest have helped some areas of the country, but the South and Southwest remain in dire straits. Seasonally, average placement weights tend to rise modestly from July into late summer, but given the more aggressive movements of feeder calves of the past couple of months, average in-weights are expected to remain depressed before declining into the fourth quarter. Given the aggressive movement of feeder calves over the summer, August placements are expected to come in 5% over the prior year and, if realized, would be the largest August total since 2000. The larger placements are expected to boost on-feed inventories to near 11.1 million head, 5.5% over the prior year.

Pork: The pork cutout found more support last week after the two previous harvest weeks were much lower, first with a holiday week and then with a hurricane. The tighter, fresh supply is putting lift in place as committed product at a discount is continually moving. With harvest levels expected lower next week, this lift in prices likely will be supported this week. However, as September quickly transitions to October and the supply of hogs continues to show an increase, the cutout should be able to find easing back down to the $68 level. It is likely the fall seasonal lows are already in place, as export markets are waking up earlier to fall purchasing at these prices. The supported cutout is allowing record profits for packers at this time, which is likely to continue throughout the fall.

Poultry: While Hurricane Florence was the hanging market disruptor last week, broiler market values were largely quiet as the cutout has experienced strong declines in recent weeks. Reflecting on the most recent export data provides additional support to the absence of significant price erosion on the back half of the bird. For July, broiler meat exports met expectations, at nearly 585 million lb. The July export total was bolstered on leg quarter values that have dropped 10 cents/lb. since the beginning of the summer and are down 12 cents/lb. from a year earlier. While it was initially expected that broiler meat export volumes to Mexico would continue to deteriorate, as they have been doing in recent years, shipments to the top U.S. broiler meat export destination were up 15% from the same month a year earlier, at nearly 120 million lb. With leg quarter values languishing nearby, exports should continue to aid broiler disappearance at a higher-than-anticipated level throughout the remainder of 2018.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.