Beef: The cash cattle market continued to weaken in the South last week, with most live sales down $1 to $112/cwt. There also were reports of some cattle bought for early-July delivery at $110. Trade in the North was fully steady to firm, with live sales at $114 and dressed trade at $184-185. Cutout values were just slightly weaker last week, with the Choice/Select spread remaining near $15.50, compared to a spread of $21-23 in late May and early June last year. Further weakness in the brisket primal and moderation in the loin primal was offset by some strength in the chuck, round and short plate primals. Fed cattle carcass weights declined counter-seasonally in the week ending June 1 and are now trending below year-ago levels.

Pork: After finding support the previous week, the pork cutout eased again last week and is now on par with the prior-year pricing structure, although primals are not all in agreement with last year's price. This means the next set of movements for the cutout are not tied with the seasonal or last year's movement. Expect hams and bellies to be the drivers of the cutout, and if bellies can increase while hams see only a modest decrease for the next few weeks, then the cutout is projected to move successively higher again over the next five weeks. The only scenario that would keep the cutout in its current trend is if bellies defy the seasonal direction and hams make strong successive drops for the peak of the summer. There is potentially still life in the cutout into the $90s, despite what the futures market is pricing for hogs in July.

Poultry: The latest round of trade data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed a total of 55.5 million lb. of turkey meat exported from the U.S. during April. The April turkey exports were the strongest monthly data reported since October of last year and represent 8.2% growth in turkey meat exports compared with year ago. It was the first year-over-year growth in turkey meat exports reported this year and the largest April total since 2014. IEG Vantage anticipates further growth in exports nearby, as the fundamental forecast and current market conditions both suggest. During the second quarter, IEG Vantage estimates that turkey meat exports will be 7.6% above the prior year. In the most recent USDA “World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates” report, turkey meat exports were projected at 612 million lb., up slightly from 611 million lb. for 2018. IEG Vantage anticipates slightly more substantial export growth for U.S. turkey meat in 2019 and expects 3% growth in exports.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various .meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.