Beef: Cattle feeders across all regions held out until Friday last week, with prices holding mostly steady. The North traded mixed at $110-111/cwt. live, while the South traded $1 lower at mostly $109. The dressed trade was flat to slightly weaker at $178-180, compared with mostly $180 last week. The Choice cutout fell slightly below $220, and Select drifted further below $200 to just above $195. The round and chuck primals held mostly steady, while the rib and loin primals saw further weakness. The Choice/Select spread moved beyond $20 and extended its widest point for the year. Weighted-average fed cattle carcass weights increased 4 lb. from the prior week to 849 lb. Beef production was estimated at just over 526 million lb., up 4.2 million lb. versus a year ago. Cattle harvests heading into July and August are projected to decline modestly.

Pork: The cutout was not able to find traction again last week, retracing further below the prior week's $7 loss. The cutout lost handily, as product buyers and packers prepared well in advance of this summer's pork demand to ensure product for supply continuity. The effect of this is allowing the fresh market supplies to be a drag on seasonal demand, with a counter-seasonal move lower when steady gains would be the norm for at least another two weeks. Hams continued with softness, and bellies' failure to maintain a foothold could be a signal that the highs for the cutout for this summer were over June 6. A cutout at this price could lead to support, however -- now 15% below the prior year. There are only a few more weeks of potential price risk for the cutout before confirming highs.

Poultry: In the latest “Cold Storage” report, U.S. Department of Agriculture showed May ending stocks of whole turkeys at 255.5 million lb., which was down 10% from a year earlier despite 11% growth from the previous month. May 2019 ending stocks were lower than the previous two years despite liveweights being up 3.9% from the prior year during the first five months of the year, on average. While not low on a historical scale, whole-bird stocks as a percentage of ready-to-cook (RTC) turkey meat production during May was at 52.4%, down 6.7% compared with a year earlier. The portion of production diverted to whole-bird inventories is anticipated to remain thinner than year-ago levels through the rest of 2019, thus contributing to further firming in the fundamental forecast for frozen hen and tom prices. Nearby, whole-bird stocks are anticipated to grow at a nominal rate compared with 2018 as a firmer cutout favors further processing this year.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.