Beef: Relatively active cash cattle trade developed in the South at midweek last week at mostly $126/cwt. live -- $2 higher than last week. The premium in the North was extended into last week, with late-week live trade also $2 higher at mostly $129-130/cwt. Dressed trade increased to $208-210. The Choice cutout strengthened into the low $230s, while the Select cutout held close to steady, widening the Choice/Select spread. The gains in the Choice cutout came primarily from the middle meats. The chuck primal was a little firmer, while the round primal was softer. Further increases are expected on cutout values into mid- or late May. This week's release of the monthly “Cattle on Feed” report was the largest April 1 feedlot inventory level in the history of the report, which goes back to 1996. The April 1 feedlot inventory was at 11.96 million head, 2% higher than last year. March placements of just over 2 million head were 5% above last year. March marketings were reported at 1.78 million head, 3% lower than last year.

Pork: The U.S. Department of Agriculture released February export numbers, which fell in line with, although slightly below, expectations. The U.S. shipped 452 million lb. of pork, which was below the prior month by more than 5% and below the prior year by nearly 8%. It should be noted that February 2018 set a record for that month, at 491 million lb. Remember that last year, China and Mexico were still full trading partners of the U.S. through first quarter, and the reduction in volume was and can be attributed to the additional tariffs in place by both countries. Orders for product ramped up in March, with shipments also seeing an increase over expectations, but totals may not surpass the prior year just yet as April 2018 showed that exceptional volumes to Mexico and China were only beginning to lower volume on the newly minted tariffs the first of that month.

Poultry: Over the last three years, turkey processors have been forced to market into a much more competitive environment as meat protein supplies have approached and eclipsed record levels in domestic markets. The result has been even closer management of turkey poult placements so as not to further saturate markets. The balance has favored declining poult placements in all but one month since September 2018. USDA’s most recent “Turkey Hatchery” report continued a declining trend, with net turkey poult placements reported at 5% lower than the previous year for March at 21.69 million head. Overall, the reduction in placements has led to a constraint of live supply of turkeys, which has not yet been overdone by the large increase in average live weights that has shown up in recent “Poultry Slaughter” reports.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various .meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.