Table egg production in June rose 2% over the same period last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest “Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook.”

June production, at 639 million doz., was in line with expectations and reflected a return to stronger production growth than seen during much of the past year, USDA noted. Projected total (table plus hatching) egg production forecasts were not revised, with expected growth at 2.9% for the second half of 2018 and 1.6% for all of 2019.

“Much of the recent production increase has resulted from a slower pace of seasonal decline in the layer inventory, likely a response to strong prices,” USDA reported. “Inventory levels are often reduced during the summer months, when prices see seasonal lows, but neither indicator has declined on normal seasonal patterns.”

As of July 1, USDA said the table egg layer inventory was 4% above a year earlier.

According to the report, consistently high egg prices in the past year have been met by steady indications that producers seek to expand more than they currently are able to do. January-to-June growth in eggs hatched for addition to egg-type chicken inventories was 9% on a year-over-year basis.

Egg prices decline, stabilize

Wholesale egg prices (large Grade A eggs, New York) declined from $1.55/doz. and stabilized at $1.09 in late July, which USDA said brought price levels closer to more typical seasonal patterns, halting a counter-seasonal surge.

USDA price forecasts were not revised. Improved supply availability should dampen price volatility going forward, although prices in the second half of 2018 are expected to increase on seasonal demand, the economist said.

Egg exports down, imports remain low

June exports of eggs and egg products totaled 25 million doz. (shell-egg equivalent), 11% below last year and only the second time in 12 months that growth was negative.

The report suggested that higher-than-expected prices may have encouraged foreign buyers to hold off on purchases. The export unit price for shell eggs was 92 cents/doz., reflecting early June prices before the surge.

Fewer exports to Mexico (down 1.2 million doz.), Japan (down 1.6 million doz.) and Jamaica (down 1.1 million doz.) accounted for most of the export decline, the economist reported.

Several countries were down lesser amounts, including the United Arab Emirates, South Korea and the Philippines. The report said export strength in Hong Kong (up 2.5 million doz.) and Canada (up 900,00 doz.) only partly offset some of the declines in total exports.

For imports, USDA reported that U.S. imports of eggs and products in June remained relatively low, at 1.7 million doz. More than half came from Canada, with additional contributions primarily from China, Taiwan and Thailand. USDA's reduced its forecast for imports 5.5 million doz. for the second half of 2018 and 8 million doz. for 2019.

“Despite indications of domestic demand pressure, imports have remained subdued, unlike in years past when relative price strength encouraged imports,” the report said.