markets charts - green with red line phongphan5922/Thinkstock

Afternoon Market Recap for Sept. 21, 2018

Export demand keeps corn lift alive.

Soybean and wheat futures, in contrast, end Friday down on technical selling 

Ample export demand kept the corn rally alive Friday, with futures moving nearly 1.5% higher. The same couldn’t be said for soybean and wheat futures, however, which moved lower amid a round of technical selling after big gains were captured earlier in the week.

Pervasive heat across the Plains and Midwest begins to subside today, as seasonally cooler temperatures through the weekend move aside for above-average temperatures to return early next week. The latest five-day cumulative precipitation map from NOAA shows the Mid-South and eastern Corn Belt are the areas most likely to see 1.5” or more additional rainfall between now and next Wednesday.

Wall St. kept shrugging off U.S.-China trade concerns Friday, pushing the S&P and Dow to record highs today. The Dow added another 62 points in afternoon trading to reach 26,719. Energy futures were narrowly mixed Friday, with crude oil up slightly, diesel down slightly and gasoline mostly treading water. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.

 

Corn prices kept its rally alive this week on bullish export data, inching up throughout Friday’s session to close nearly 1.5% higher. December futures added 4.75 cents to $3.5725, while March futures gained 4.5 cents to $3.6925. December futures finished the week 1.6% higher.

Corn basis bids were mixed Friday, moving 2 to 10 cents higher across several Midwestern river terminals Friday but coming in narrowly mixed at ethanol plants and dipping 2 cents lower at a Nebraska processor. 

Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 4.8 million bushels of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/19 marketing year, which began September 1. 

Brazil’s AgRural consultancy says the country’s first corn crop planting has started ahead of schedule, reaching 24% completion versus 2017’s pace and the five-year average, both at 19%.

Ukraine’s 2018/19 grain marketing year, which began July 1, has featured corn exports totaling 55 million bushels so far. Total grain exports in the 2018 calendar year could surpass 2017 totals by about 3%. 

China sold 30.4 million bushels of its state reserves of corn at auction Friday, which was about 19.5% of the total available for sale. 

Could bad news now make way for good news later? Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr breaks down his thoughts in the latest Corn Outlook.

For the week, corn speculators increased their net short position significantly, adding another 89,667 contracts to reach 176,196. 

Preliminary volume estimates were for 229,859 contracts, falling well below Thursday’s final count of 413,907.

 

Soybean prices eased after consecutive days of double-digit gains on Wednesday and Thursday. A round of technical selling only made a small dent in prices, however, with November futures dipping 3 cents to $8.4725 and January futures easing 2.75 cents to $8.6125. 

Soybean basis bids were steady to firm Friday, moving 2 to 8 cents higher across several Midwestern locations, although most locations remained unchanged.

Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 100,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations for the 2018/19 marketing year, which begins October 1. 

Brazil’s AgRural consultancy says the country’s soybean planting season is off to a fast start in Paraná, reaching 11.2% completion versus last year’s pace of 1.7% and a five-year average of 1.9%. Total acres could exceed 2017 by 0.3%, reaching 88.46 million acres. 

For the week, soybean speculators increased their net short position by another 4,526 contracts to reach 127,921. 

Preliminary volume estimates were for 133,705 contracts, reaching nearly half of Thursday’s final count of 255,604.

 

Wheat prices eased on a round of technical selling Friday, but most contracts ended up about 2% higher for the week. December Chicago SRW futures dipped 2.25 cents to $5.2175, December Kansas City HRW futures ended Friday unchanged at $5.27, and December MGEX spring wheat futures slid 6 cents to $5.8325. 

In the latest Wheat Outlookfrom Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr, charts and perhaps fundamentals signal some hope for a modest price rebound. Click hereto learn what factors are currently in play.

Russian consultancy IKAR has lowered its assessment of the country’s 2018 wheat production by a half-percent from August estimates, to 2.543 billion bushels. Another Russian consultancy, Sovecon, lowered its estimates for the country’s 2018/19 wheat exports to 1.213 billion bushels.

So far in Ukraine’s 2018/19 grain marketing year, which began July 1, the country has exported 191 million bushels of wheat, outpacing the prior marketing year by 11% so far. 

With Kazakhstan’s 2018 grain harvest reaching 59% completion, the country expects a total production of around 20 million metric tons. About 45% of the total could be earmarked for exports, according to its agriculture ministry. 

China sold nearly 934,000 bushels of its state reserves of 2013 imported wheat at auction Friday, which was 2.6% of the total available for sale.

For the week, CBOT wheat speculators added 14,260 contracts to their net short position to reach 37,525.

Preliminary volume estimates were for an anemic 58,860 CBOT contracts, dropping below Thursday’s final count of 80,852.

Hide comments

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Publish