Grain prices have faced a lot of volatility – and have been mostly heading in the wrong direction – in recent weeks, but Thursday’s session was fairly quiet in comparison. Corn prices inched slightly higher, while soybean prices eased slightly lower. Wheat prices made moderate inroads following another round of technical buying today.

Most of the Corn Belt will get at least some measurable moisture between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Parts of the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and Mid-South are likely to gather the largest amounts during this time. NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally dry conditions for the Great Lakes region between May 11 and May 17, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the entire central U.S.

On Wall St., the Dow dropped another 306 points in afternoon trading to 33,107, erasing the remainder of 2023’s gains in the process, weighed down by steep losses in the banking sector. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil was near-even this afternoon, staying just below $69 per barrel. Diesel and gasoline each moved modestly higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.

On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+5,500), soybeans (+1,000), soyoil (+2,000) and CBOT wheat (+11,000) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-1,500).

Corn

Corn prices overcame mild overnight losses to capture small gains following some light technical buying on Thursday. Traders largely shrugged off a dismal set of export sales data this morning, with rising wheat prices offering some technical support. May futures added 2.25 cents to $6.4775, with July futures up 0.25 cents to $5.8875.

Corn basis bids were mostly steady to firm across the central U.S. after rising 2 to 23 cents across three Midwestern locations on Thursday. An Illinois river terminal bucked the overall trend after shifting 3 cents lower today.

Old crop corn sales faced net reductions of 12.4 million bushels. New crop sales chipped in 4.8 million bushels, trimming the deficit to 7.2 million bushels. Analysts struggled to predict the results, which still landed in the range of guesses that came in between net reductions of 17.7 million and net sales of 31.5 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year remain substantially below last year’s pace, with 998.8 million bushels since September 1, 2022.

Corn export shipments offered a sharp contrast after climbing to a marketing-year high of 66.9 million bushels. Japan, Mexico, China, Colombia and Taiwan were the top five destinations.

Algeria issued an international tender to purchase 5.5 million bushels of corn, which can be sourced from Argentina or Brazil, that closes today. The grain is comprised of four consignments for shipping between mid-May and mid-August.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 281,787 contracts, shifting moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 335,075.

Soybeans

Soybean prices nearly overcame moderate overnight losses but still finished Thursday’s session slightly in the red after some light net technical selling. May futures eased 1.5 cents to $14.4650, with July futures down 0.5 cents to $14.17.

The rest of the soy complex found similar results today, with both soymeal and soyoil trending slightly lower.

Soybean basis bids were down 5 cents at an Ohio river terminal and eased a penny lower at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.

Soybean exports found 10.6 million bushels in old crop sales last week, plus another 2.5 million bushels in new crop sales, for a total tally of 13.1 million bushels. That was on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 3.7 million and 18.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are now slightly below last year’s pace, with 1.730 billion bushels.

Soybean export shipments trended 12% above the prior four-week average, with 20.6 million bushels. China, Germany, the Netherlands, Mexico and South Korea were the top five destinations.

Algeria issued an international tender to purchase up to 70,000 metric tons of soymeal from optional origins that closes later today. The grain is for shipment in June and July.

The 29^th annual Student Soybean Innovation Competition, which is sponsored by the Indiana Soybean Alliance with support from Purdue University, recently concluded as participants sought out ways to use soybeans to replace less environmentally ingredients in everyday products. Teams developed everything from a biodegradable alternative to Styrofoam to soy-based drywall. Click here to see what else these enterprising students cooked up.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 162,600 contracts, moving moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 226,873.

Wheat

Wheat prices continued to track higher on Thursday as the focus remains on negotiations that seek to extend a Black Sea shipping deal, and as tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain elevated. July Chicago SRW futures added 4.75 cents to $6.4450, July Kansas City HRW futures rose 13.25 cents to $7.9825, and July MGEX spring wheat futures gained 9 cents to $8.1250.

Wheat exports found 7.8 million bushels in old crop sales, plus another 10.3 million bushels of new crop sales, for a total of 18.1 million bushels. That was near the upper end of trade estimates, which ranged between 1.8 million and 20.2 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2022/23 marketing year are slightly below last year’s pace so far, with 605.6 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments trended 5% lower week-over-week while staying 17% above the prior four-week average, with 10.6 million bushels. Egypt, Japan, the Dominican Republic, Mexico and Italy were the top five destinations.

Representatives from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations will meet again on Friday to discuss the possibility of extending a deal that allows for safe passage of shipping vessels in the Black Sea, which would otherwise expire on May 18. Russia has additional demands it wants met before a deal is extended, but Turkish officials are still optimistic that “the grain initiative continues in a fast, safe and planned manner” and that talks will “produce positive results.”

Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 3.7 million bushels of durum wheat and 3.4 million bushels of animal feed barley from optional origins that closes on Friday. The grain is for shipment in June and July.

China confirmed it had sold 590,000 bushels of its state reserves of imported wheat in an auction held last week. That was around 40% of the total available for sale. China has offered a series of similarly sized wheat auctions over the past several months to boost local supplies and lower high prices.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 114,220 CBOT contracts, sliding moderately below Wednesday’s final count of 149,514.