USDA’s latest “Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook” revealed turkey production in May 2024 was 441.1 million pounds, a decrease of 9.6% from May 2023. Slaughter was down 11.8% year over year, but 2.7% higher average weights eased the impact of the decrease in slaughter. Based on preliminary weekly data for June, the second-quarter estimate was adjusted up by 15 million pounds to 1.34 billion pounds. This would still be a year-over-year decrease of 5.3%.

The outlook doesn’t improve, according to USDA agriculture economist Grace Grossen, who suggested that other early indicators dampen expectations for the latter half of this year. June saw the loss of another 549,500 turkeys to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Iowa and Minnesota, making the total number of turkeys lost in the U.S. so far this year at just over 1.2 million.

Turkey eggs in incubators fell to a record low on the first of June, with just under 23 million eggs. Grossen explained that eggs incubated in June and hatched and placed around July typically grow out in time for Thanksgiving in November. Based on the very low eggs in incubators total for June, she said projected fourth quarter production was adjusted down by 25 million pounds to 1.30 billion pounds.

In total, the 2024 production projection was adjusted down to 5.21 billion pounds, a decrease of 4.5% from the 2023 total. For 2025, USDA lowered projected production to 5.28 billion pounds, continuing the trend of lowered production expectations from this year. However, Grossen said this would be a year-over-year increase of 1.3% from 2024.

Turkey price projections

Wholesale prices for frozen whole hen turkeys averaged 91.4 cents per pound in June, down 61 cents from June of last year and down 11.6 cents month over month. In the last week of June and the first week of July, prices fell to under 90 cents per pound. Prices in the week ending July 5 averaged 87.5 cents per pound.

Based on recent weekly prices, Grossen said the projected average turkey price for the third quarter was adjusted down 3 cents to 96 cents per pound. The fourth-quarter projection was left unchanged at 99 cents per pound.

“With these adjustments, the new annual average price projection is 95.7 cents per pound,” she noted. “This would be down 44 cents from the 2023 average.”

The projected average price for 2025, on the other hand, was adjusted up to reflect lowered production expectations, Grossen added. The new 2025 projection is $1.07 per pound.