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Grain markets had a rough outing on Friday after USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report held a mixed but somewhat bearish data for traders to digest. Corn prices saw a bit of upside despite USDA predicting production will move north of 15 billion bushels this season. Soybeans continued to slump lower after a round of technical selling, and wheat prices suffered a double-digit setback today.

Aside from large portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin, which could gather another 0.75” or more rainfall between Saturday and Tuesday, most other parts of the Corn Belt will see little to no moisture during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the southern U.S. between July 19 and July 25, while cooler-than-normal temperatures will be building across the Ohio River Valley.

On Wall St., the Dow punched back through the 40,000-point benchmark after climbing 428 points in afternoon trading to 40,182 – the highest it has ever been. Big gains from Home Depot, Caterpillar and others helped fuel today’s gains. Energy futures were lightly mixed. Crude oil eased 0.25% lower this afternoon to $82 per barrel. Diesel faced fractional cuts, while gasoline tracked 0.3% to 0.4% higher. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.

On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+2,500), soyoil (+3,000) and CBOT wheat (+5,000) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-2,000) and soymeal (-2,000).

Additional recommended reading today:

CORN

Corn prices were mixed on Friday, which seems appropriate given USDA’s mix of bullish and bearish data in today’s WASDE report (more on that below). July futures dropped 6.75 cents to $4.00, while September futures firmed 3.25 cents to $4.0350.

Corn basis bids were steady to firm after rising 2 to 7 cents across three Midwestern locations on Friday.

USDA noted greater usage forecast for 2023/24 in today’s WASDE report, which caused the agency to lower beginning stocks by 145 million bushels. Exports increased by 75 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in USDA’s June grain stocks report.

Production estimates were more bearish for commodity prices, meantime. USDA increased its forecast by 240 million bushels due to greater expected plantings. Because of that, the agency thinks U.S. growers will produce 15.1 billion bushels of corn this season and haul in average yields of 181.0 bushels per acre.

China’s agriculture ministry made no changes to its 2024/25 corn production forecast, which remains at 11.693 billion bushels. Chinese corn imports are also expected to hold steady, with an estimated 511.8 million bushels.

Corn settlements on Thursday were for 442,127 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices continued to stumble lower on Friday and have been on a pretty consistent decline since late May. Today’s round of technical selling pushed July futures down another 8.25 cents to $11.3450, while August futures lost 13.75 cents to $11.0325.

The rest of the soy complex also faced moderate cuts on Friday. August soymeal futures eroded almost 1.25% lower, while August soyoil futures were down around 1%.

Soybean basis bids stumbled 10 cents lower at an Indiana processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.

For soybeans, USDA lowered its production estimates by 15 million bushels to 4.435 billion, based on lower harvested area, which was lowered by 300,000 acres. Yield forecasts held steady, at 52.0 bushels per acre.

Due to slightly lower beginning stocks, reduced production and unchanged use, that leaves ending stocks for 2024/25 down 20 million bushels from June, to 435 million bushels. That was modestly lower than the average trade guess of 449 million bushels.

Ahead of the next National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report, out next Monday, analysts think the group will show a June soybean crush totaling 177.936 million bushels. If realized, that would be 3.1% below May’s volume but a year-over-year increase of 7.8%. Soyoil stocks are expected to ease to 1.669 billion pounds through June 30.

China’s agriculture ministry still expects the country’s 2024/25 soybean production to come in at 754.7 million bushels. Chinese soybean imports are also holding steady, with an estimated 3.476 billion bushels.

Brazil’s Safras & Mercado has bullish expectations for the country’s upcoming 2024/25 soybean crop after offering a production estimate of 6.303 billion bushels. Soybean plantings are expected to rise 1.9% higher, with 116.9 million acres.

Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 224,472 contracts.

WHEAT

Wheat prices crumbled after USDA increased its projection for U.S. all-wheat production by more than 130 million bushels, which triggered another round of technical selling on Friday. September Chicago SRW futures tumbled 20 cents to $5.5125, September Kansas City HRW futures fell 14.75 cents to $5.69, and September MGEX spring wheat futures lost 15.25 cents to $6.0350.

USDA raised its estimates for all-wheat production 134 million bushels after offering a new projection of 2.008 billion bushels. A boost in winter wheat and durum production was the reason behind this increase. Feed and residual use shifted 10 million bushels higher to 110 million, and exports moved 25 million bushels higher to 825 million. Even so, projected 2024/25 ending stocks are expected to climb to the highest levels in five years, at 856 million.

France’s soft wheat harvest is off to a sluggish start, according to the latest updates from its FranceAgriMer farm office. Progress reached 4% through July 8, up from 1% a week ago but substantially below 2023’s pace of 26% and the prior five-year average of 19%. Crop ratings eased another point lower, with 57% now in good-to-excellent condition. France is Europe’s No. 1 grain producer.

South Korea purchased 2.4 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in late October. It’s also interesting to note that the deal stipulated that any Black Sea origin grain cannot be loaded in Russian or Ukrainian ports.

CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 110,103 contracts.