Beef: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly “Livestock Slaughter” report for September was released on Oct. 25 and revealed federally Inspected (FI) cattle slaughter to be 2.576 million head, down 3% from the September 2017 total. Through the first nine months of 2018, FI cattle slaughter totaled 24.3 million head, up 2.6% from the same period last year. For the fourth quarter of 2018, the FI cattle harvest is projected to total just over 8 million head, slightly below a year ago. Cattle slaughter for 2018 is expected to be up 1.9% from 2017, totaling more than 32.3 million head. Looking to the first quarter of 2019, the FI cattle harvest is forecasted to average 0.7% below the first quarter of 2018, totaling 7.7 million head. Last week’s cattle slaughter was estimated at 633,000 head -- 8,000 head (1.3%) larger than the prior week and 1.3% larger than a year ago. Look for weekly cattle harvest levels to work towards the upper-630,000- to lower-640,000-head area later this year.

Pork: USDA released cold storage numbers for the end of September, which were in line with the Informa Economics IEG forecast. Totals in cold storage were 589 million lb., 1% over the prior year and a modest build from August of 8 million lb. September is typically a second seasonal peak for cold storage levels. This is not because the industry is packing away all primals for continuity of supply but, rather, is depleting stocks while adding hams for the holidays. Typical fresh supply will be more than plentiful for this fall and winter, with the need for cold storage less than robust. The report showed levels as expected without major surprises or deviations from typical. Hams and bellies are at ample levels for the remaining portions of 2018 given the availability of the large fresh supplies suggested.

Poultry: Leading into September, analysts expected that the sluggish conditions that typically emerge during the tail end of the year would be further exacerbated by larger volumes of young chickens processed in the upper-weight categories and that the swaths of competing proteins would continue to pressure prices further. Indeed, both the “Cold Storage” report and “Chicken & Eggs” report released by USDA during the week revealed a marketplace overburdened by broiler meat. Total chicken in U.S. public cold storage warehouses totaled 932.3 million lb. to end September. Total ending stocks of all chicken were record large in September, at an 18% increase over the total reported a year earlier. Stocks reported under the category of “other” continue to encapsulate the majority of product reported and showed a total of 424.6 million lb., up 28% from the same month a year earlier. Stocks of wings showed a significant gain as well, up 57% from a year earlier to 104.9 million lb., while leg quarter stocks continue to show a deficit to the prior year at 105 million lb.