No two markets are the same. All are impacted by a different set of fundamentals. My all-time favorite has always been corn. The U.S. is the largest producer in the world which makes it influenced by fewer fundamental factors. Concentrate on one number to forecast the price of corn and that is the stocks to usage ratio at year end. The market is “voting” on what will be left over at year end.

This year our estimate is 13.0%. A simple analysis of the scatter diagram below would estimate the expected nationwide average price at roughly $4.35 per bushel. If we compare this to the central Illinois average price, which as this is being written is at about $4.26, we would have to conclude that the market is well priced right now and may continu...