Weekly cattle prices have recently rebounded from September’s relative lows to establish new highs for October and November, according to USDA’s latest “Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.” They are forecast to remain elevated through 2025, reflecting recent price data and changes to the timing of cattle placements and marketings, USDA livestock economists Russell Knight and Hannah Taylor noted.

In October, the weighted-average price for feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds at the Oklahoma City National Stockyards was $254.19 per hundredweight (cwt.), an increase of $7.41 from September and almost $11.00 above October 2023.

In the first week of November, the price for feeder steers was untested as heavy rains kept many calves from coming to the sale. Only 18 head of feeder steers weighing 750–800 pounds sold, at $243.00/cwt., a decline of almost $12.00 from the previous week.

USDA has raised its Q4 2024 price forecast by $1.00 to $254.00/cwt. as prices are expected to stay relatively flat for the quarter. USDA’s annual projection for 2025 feeder steer prices is now $258.00/cwt., down from last month’s forecast.

Although the second-quarter forecast is raised on higher expected placement demand, it is more than offset by lower prices in the third and fourth quarters compared to last month, Knight and Taylor noted.

Regarding boxed beef values, the economists noted comprehensive boxed beef values have increased 5% from their recent low in early October. But, that support seems to have waned in the first week of November, which Knight and Taylor said is mainly due to lower prices for end cuts from the chuck and round. Even so, wholesale beef prices remain at record levels for this time of year.

The chart below shows the 4-week moving average for the percent of beef sales for delivery 22–60 days out. Knight and Taylor said it appears that 2024 forward sales for delivery during the holidays are at or slightly below this time last year. However, it is important to follow the seasonal patterns as most medium-sized and large supermarket chains book beef 4 to 8 weeks ahead of the delivery date for regular weekly deliveries. Spot sales for delivery 0–21 days out are mostly above a year ago and above a standard deviation from the average, which still suggests greater just-intime purchasing decisions for this time of year.

The October average price for fed steers in the 5-area marketing region was $188.62/cwt., an increase of more than $5.00 from September. Expectations for Q4 prices are raised by $2.00 from last month to $188.00/cwt. based on recent price data and improved beef cutout prices, the economists relayed.

As for 2025, a faster pace of cattle marketed for slaughter in second-half 2025 is expected to improve prices for an annual average of $188.00/cwt.