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Grain prices were all in the green on Thursday as traders had one last opportunity to square positions ahead of tomorrow morning’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The ensuing pattern of bargain buying and short covering led to some significant gains for some contracts. Winter wheat futures found the biggest gains, with several contracts rising more than 3% higher, thanks in part to an interesting geopolitical twist in the Black Sea region (more on this below). Corn prices firmed more than 1.25%, while soybeans made more modest inroads.

Scattered rains are possible across much of the Corn Belt between Friday and Monday, but very few fields will gather more than 0.25” during this time, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally dry weather across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between July 18 and July 24, with warmer-than-normal temperatures also likely for the western half of the country.

On Wall St., the Dow moved 37 points higher in afternoon trading to 39,758 on hopes that the Federal Reserve could initiate an interest rate cut as soon as September. Energy futures pushed higher, with crude oil up 0.75% this afternoon to stay above $82 per barrel. Diesel inched 0.1% higher, with gasoline up 0.7%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.

On Wednesday, commodity funds were net sellers of all major grain contracts, including corn (-500), soybeans (-5,500), soymeal (-5,500), soyoil (-3,000) and CBOT wheat (-3,500).

Corn

Corn prices found moderate gains after traders unwound some of their massive collective short position, leading to gains of more than 1.25%. July futures added 3.5 cents to $4.0675, with September futures up 5.25 cents to $4.01.

Corn basis bids were steady to firm after improving 2 to 7 cents across four Midwestern locations on Thursday.

Corn exports found 25.8 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales moved 51% higher week-over-week but remained 13% below the prior four-week average. Total sales were on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 11.8 million and 53.1 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year remain moderately above last year’s pace so far, with 1.774 billion bushels.

Corn export shipments faded 27% below the prior four-week average, with 32.3 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea and Costa Rica were the top five destinations.

Brazil’s Conab increased its expectations for the country’s second corn crop after offering a new estimate of 3.543 billion bushels. That pushes Brazil’s total 2023/24 corn production up to 4.561 billion bushels. Conab made no changes to its estimates for corn exports in the current marketing year, which remains at 1.319 billion bushels.

Ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to slightly raise its estimates for 2023/24 corn ending stocks, moving from 2.022 billion bushels in June to 2.049 billion bushels in July. Individual trade guesses ranged between 1.997 billion and 2.122 billion bushels.

South Korea issued an international tender to purchase 5.5 million bushels of animal feed corn, sourced from South America or South Africa, that closes on Friday. The grain is for arrival around December 10.

You’ve no doubt heard about recent severe flooding that occurred in parts of Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota. Three weeks later, parts of the Mississippi River are still closed because of this. Farm broadcaster Mike Pearson takes a closer look at the situation in today’s edition of Farm Progress America – click here to listen.

Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 504,099 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybean prices found modest gains on a round of technical buying largely spurred by spillover support from a broad set of other commodities. July futures added 1.5 cents to $11.4275, with August futures up 5 cents to $11.1825.

The rest of the soy complex was also in the green today. August soymeal futures tracked more than 0.5% higher, with August soyoil futures up more than 1.75%.

Soybean basis bids were mostly steady across the central U.S. but did track 4 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal on Thursday.

Soybean export sales reached 14.7 million bushels last week. That was on the very low end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 9.2 million and 33.1 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2023/24 marketing year are still trending moderately lower than last year’s pace, with 1.523 billion bushels.Soybean export shipments shifted 11% below the prior four-week average, with 9.8 million bushels. The Netherlands, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and Colombia were the top five destinations.

Ahead of tomorrow morning’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to slightly raise its estimates for 2023/24 soybean ending stocks from 350 million bushels in June up to 355 million bushels in July. Individual trade guesses ranged between 329 million and 390 million bushels.Brazil’s Conab made fractional cuts to its estimates for the country’s 2023/24 soybean production, which is now at 5.414 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean exports are expected to decline 9.2% year-over-year to 3.395 billion bushels.

Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 231,049 contracts.

Wheat

Wheat prices grabbed massive gains on a round of bargain buying and short-covering. Also in the mix was news that Ukraine seized a cargo ship and detained its captain, accusing Moscow of exporting “looted” Ukrainian grain. This has been a common accusation over the past three years, but actual ship seizures have been relatively rare. September Chicago SRW futures gained 9.75 cents to $5.7125, September Kansas City HRW futures rose 17.75 cents to $5.8325, and September MGEX spring wheat futures added 7.25 cents to $6.1825.

Wheat export sales only managed to reach 8.8 million bushels last week. That was below the entire set of analyst estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 25.7 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024/25 marketing year are running modestly above last year’s pace so far, with 57.4 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments reached 10.8 million bushels last week. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Mexico and the Leeward and Windward Island (located in the Caribbean, for those who are curious) were the top five destinations.

As expected, Japan purchased 3.9 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 47% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment in September.

South Korea purchased 2.5 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival around October 30.

CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 102,078 contracts.