Positive outlook for poultry globally, but expect geopolitics, trade disruptions aheadPositive outlook for poultry globally, but expect geopolitics, trade disruptions ahead

RaboResearch sees chicken well-positioned in times of expensive competitive proteins and lower costs.

Ann Hess, Content Director

January 22, 2025

4 Min Read
Packages of poultry meat
While the Trump administration is threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico until certain conditions are met, Brazil is negotiating a free trade agreement with Mexico that could provide expanded market accessGetty Images

The global poultry industry should see 2.5%-3% growth in 2025, as chicken remains well-positioned versus competing higher-priced proteins, consumers gravitate towards new sustainability trends, and demand trickles in from Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East/Africa. However, global supply will continue to be challenged in the new year by avian influenza and a tight breeding stock supply.

“Global trade will stay strong but be impacted by rising geopolitical tensions and ongoing pressure from avian influenza. The move towards a higher focus on food and resource security, the local economy, and more global trade relationships will likely challenge access to several markets. It will create changing trade flows and more volatility in volume and prices,” notes Nan-Dirk Mulder, RaboResearch senior analyst – animal protein and author of Rabobank’s Global Poultry Quarterly Q1 2025 report.

Avian influenza will not only challenge global markets and trade conditions in 2025, but will dictate increased biosecurity, mitigation and vaccination efforts.

That said, operational costs are expected to remain relatively flat for the first half of the year, supported by abundant supplies of corn and soybeans from North America and Brazil. According to Mulder, the most critical risks stem from a potential La Niña and Europe’s growing season.

Related:Poultry and egg export volumes lower to close out 2024

RaboResarch anticipates chicken trade to stay robust, with China being the main exception due to local oversupply challenges and a weak economy. Japan's dim economy and yen depreciation will also be an ongoing issue, but volumes are expected to rise.

“Ongoing geopolitical tension and trade issues are expected to continue challenging trade. Potential trade issues related to a changing trade direction by the new U.S. government, rising tensions between Europe and China, ongoing rerouting of shipments via the southern route due to turmoil in the Middle East, and trade restrictions due to disease challenges might all continue challenging trade, impacting trade flows and prices and creating more volatility,” Mulder states.

As for U.S. poultry production, RaboResearch estimates nearly 2% year-over-year increase in 2024 production, with 2025 ready-to-cook production expected to rise to 21.5 million metric tons. Tight beef supplies and associated higher prices, along with consumers’ preference for value and convenience, is anticipated to support 2025 chicken markets.

Mulder expects the U.S. to see modest gains in broiler exports as the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada could trigger retaliatory measures, endangering two valuable U.S. poultry export markets.

Related:Shifting demand patterns contributing to high egg prices

Mexico: Mulder foresees prices in 2025 feeling some downward pressure as the Mexican market works through backend supply and the weather allows birds to carry more weight to the processor. While the Trump administration is threatening 25% tariffs until certain conditions are met, Brazil is negotiating a free trade agreement with Mexico that could provide expanded market access. For now, Mexico has already extended duty-free trade exemptions for 2025.

Brazil: Live broiler price reached its highest level in two years in November 2024 as exports continue to accelerate towards a new record. Mulder projects a more stable scenario for Brazilian feed prices in the first half of 2025 and notes chicken’s increased competitiveness compared to beef should also bring more opportunities to increase consumption.

Europe: Chicken production in the EU and the UK is expected to remain positive, although “supply growth discipline will be needed,” Mulder states.

“From a supply perspective, there are still quite some challenges and changes coming up. The most obvious one is the current shift by most key retailers in the new 30 kg/m2 UK farm standards, which will significantly impact farm capacity. This transformation started last year, with more and more retailers shifting. So far, production in the UK has remained relatively high, but with upcoming new commitments, it will likely impact next year,” Mulder notes. “Next year is also the year of final preparation for the 2026 European Chicken Commitment deadline. So far, committed companies have taken a defensive approach, and some have announced it will be delayed.”

Related:Meat exports end 2024 with much to celebrate

Finally, avian influenza outbreaks have increased significantly, and are happening relatively early in the season.

South Africa: Lower costs and more affordable chicken should support the South African poultry industry and the local economy, especially since poultry is the most significant agricultural industry in South Africa, Mulder states. However, avian influenza will still be a wildcard for the region.

China: In 2024, production was up 6.4% for the first three quarters, creating a 30% drop in imports. China has also seen a significant decrease in corn and soybean prices. Mulder notes the Chinese poultry industry is earning small but positive margins. China has suspended U.S. and New Zealand breeding stock, most likely due to avian influenza. Mulder says the impact of that decision will depend on how long the suspension lasts.

Japan: Chicken consumption per capita increased 4.4% YOY in Q3 2024, while beef and pork decreased by 5.1% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a shift toward cheaper protein. Supply has tightened due to an extremely hot summer last year, as well as more avian influenza outbreaks.

“Although demand for imported chicken from the foodservice industry is expected to be stable from Q1 2025, higher import prices, as a result of less favorable exchange rates, might lead to stagnation in imports,” Mulder states.

Thailand: The country is seeing lower prices after a period of strong industry performance. Exports, specifically processed, to Europe, Southeast Asia and MEA, remain strong, however Mulder says the outlook for Thailand’s poultry industry remains bullish, with 2%-3% growth anticipated.

About the Author

Ann Hess

Content Director, National Hog Farmer

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