Since early September, U.S. pork production has consistently been lower than expected, according to the Livestock Market Information Center (LMIC).

LMIC said the two components of production, head harvested and carcass weights, have both tended to be less than forecasts, which has contributed to stronger slaughter hog prices compared to this August and early September. This also translated into year-over-year price increases that persisted through mid-October.

From the first full week of September through the week ending Oct. 13,  the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly average federally inspected (FI) barrow and gilt slaughter was down 2.0%. Further, LMIC said only two weeks showed increases compared with the respective weeks in 2017. Preliminary USDA total FI hog slaughter data for the last two weeks showed a year-over-year rise of 3.5%.

LMIC said in the last “Quarterly Hogs & Pigs” report by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), the number of market hogs reported by producers was above a year ago, and the heavy weight category -- those weighing more than 180 lb. -- was reported at 3.5% above a year earlier.

Most of those animals, LMIC said, should have been harvested by mid-October, but barrow and gilt slaughter actually fell 2.0%. As of Sept. 1, NASS reported that the 120-179 lb. market hog weight category was up 3.5% compared to a year earlier, and although it’s still too early to be definitive, data for recent weeks have lined up with the NASS report. Over the last two weeks, preliminary slaughter averaged 3.5% above a year ago.

For the last six weeks of data (through the week ending Oct. 13), LMIC said FI barrow and gilt dressed weight has averaged 1.5 lb. below a year earlier. Only during the week ending Oct. 13 did dressed weight equal the 2017 number.

“Lower-than-anticipated slaughter and dressed weights caused U.S. weekly average FI pork production from early September through late October (eight weeks) to drop compared to a year ago by 1.3%,” LMIC noted. “Over that same time frame, national dressed hog base prices were slightly below 2017’s (down 0.6%).”

LMIC explained that, during early September, there were large year-over-year price drops because of issues related to foreign demand prospects, but during the last five weeks, hog prices were actually $5.00/cwt. higher than year-ago levels. Last week, however, the base slaughter hog price was down $2.72/cwt. compared to a year ago, a 4.1% decline.

“For the balance of this year, if slaughter continues to be at levels indicated by the 'Hogs & Pigs' report, prices are expected to remain below 2017’s,” LMIC said.