USDA raises soy production, lowers corn

Despite changes, corn and soybean production forecasts still large.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the latest “Crop Production” report Sept. 11, revealing a larger than expected forecast for domestic soybean production.

USDA predicted 2015/16 U.S. soybean production at 3.94 billion bushels, a slight increase from August but a 1% decrease from last year. Based on Sept. 1 conditions, yields were expected to average 47.1 bushels per acre, a 0.2 bushel increase from last month but a 0.7 bushel decrease from last year. Prior to the report, the trade estimated soybean production at 3.869 billion bu. and an average yield of 46.4 bu. per acre. U.S. soybean acres harvested was forecast at a record 83.5 million acres, unchanged from Aug. but a less than 1% increase from 2014.

Corn production was forecast at 13.6 billion bushels, a 4% decrease from last year’s record production and a less than 1% decrease from the Aug. forecast. Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields were expected to average 167.5 bushels per acre, a 1.3 bushels decrease from the Aug. forecast and a 3.5 bushels decrease from 2014. Prior to the report, the trade estimated corn production at 13.599 billion bu. and an average yield of 167.6 bu. per acre.

If realized, USDA said this will be the second highest yield and third largest production on record for the U.S. corn acres harvested was forecast at 81.1 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but a 2% decrease from 2014.

The USDA’s “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” (WASDE) report showed a 20 million bu. decrease in the 2015/16 U.S. soybean ending stocks  to 450 million bu. USDA also lowered the 2014-15 U.S. soybean ending stocks to 210 million bu. from 240 million bu. as a result of increased exports and crushings. The trade anticipated 223 million bu. for 2014/15 U.S. soy ending stocks and 415 million bu. for 2015/16 U.S. soy ending stocks.

USDA lowered the 2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.592 billion bu. from 1.713 billion bu. due to the reduction in 2015/16 corn production. Corn ending stocks for 2014/15 were lowered by 40 million bu. to 1.732 billion bu. Both forecasts were lower than trade predictions.

USDA raised the 2015/16 U.S. wheat ending stocks by 25 million bu. to 875 million bu., 10 million above the average of trade estimates.

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