Two-thirds of fish to be farm raised by 2030

Two-thirds of fish to be farm raised by 2030

New joint report looks at prospects for fisheries and aquaculture.

AQUACULTURE — or fish farming — will provide close to two-thirds of global food fish consumption by 2030 as catches from wild-capture fisheries level off and demand from an emerging global middle class, especially in China, substantially increases (Table).

These are among the key findings of "Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries & Aquaculture," a collaborative report from World Bank, the U.N. Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) released Feb. 5. The report highlights the extent of global trade in seafood that tends to flow heavily from developing to developed countries.

According to FAO, at present, 38% of all fish produced in the world are exported, and in value terms, more than two-thirds of fishery exports from developing countries are directed to developed countries.

The "Fish to 2030" report shows that a major and growing market for fish is China, which is projected to account for 38% of global consumption of food fish by 2030, FAO said. China and many other nations are increasing their investments in aquaculture to help meet this growing demand.

Asia — including South Asia, Southeast Asia, China and Japan — is projected to make up 70% of global fish consumption by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, is expected to see a per-capita fish consumption decline of 1% per year from 2010 to 2030, but due to rapid population growth of 2.3% in the same period, the region's total fish consumption will grow by 30% overall.

The report predicts that 62% of food fish will come from aquaculture by 2030, with the fastest supply growth likely to come from tilapia, carp and catfish. Global tilapia production is expected to almost double from 4.3 million tons to 7.3 million tons a year between 2010 and 2030.

"The fast-moving nature of aquaculture is what made this a particularly challenging sector to model — and at the same time, (it) embodies the most exciting aspect of it in terms of future prospects for transformation and technological change," said IFPRI's Siwa Msangi, one of the report's authors. "Comparing this study to a similar study we did in 2003, we can see that growth in aquaculture production has been stronger than what we thought."

World Bank director of agriculture and environmental services Juergen Voegele said the report provides valuable information for developing countries interested in growing their economies through sustainable fish production, although he warned that carefully thought-out policies are needed to ensure that the resource is sustainably managed.

"Supplying fish sustainably — producing it without depleting productive natural resources and without damaging the precious aquatic environment — is a huge challenge," he said. "We continue to see excessive and irresponsible harvesting in capture fisheries, and in aquaculture, disease outbreaks, among other things, have heavily impacted production. If countries can get their resource management right, they will be well placed to benefit from the changing trade environment."

Fisheries and aquaculture are a vital source of jobs, nutritious food and economic opportunities, especially for small-scale fishing communities, yet threats from large-scale disease outbreaks in aquaculture and climate change-related effects could dramatically alter this.

Arni M. Mathiesen, assistant director-general of the FAO fisheries and aquaculture department, emphasized that unlocking the potential of aquaculture could have long-lasting and positive benefits.

"With the world's population predicted to increase to 9 billion people by 2050 — particularly in areas that have high rates of food insecurity — aquaculture, if responsibly developed and practiced, can make a significant contribution to global food security and economic growth," he said.

 

Summary results under baseline scenario (1,000 tons)

 

-Total fish supply-

-Food fish consumption-

 

2008

2030*

2006

2030*

Capture

89,443

93,229

64,533

58,159

Aquaculture

52,843

93,612

47,164

93,612

Global total

142,285

186,842

111,697

151,771

Total by region

ECA

14,564

15,796

16,290

16,735

NAM

6,064

6,472

8,151

10,674

LAC

17,427

21,829

5,246

5,200

EAP

3,724

3,956

3,866

2,943

China

49,224

68,950

35,291

57,361

Japan

4,912

4,702

7,485

7,447

SEA

20,009

29,092

14,623

19,327

SAR

6,815

9,975

4,940

9,331

India

7,589

12,731

5,887

10,054

MNA

3,518

4,680

3,604

4,730

AFR

5,654

5,936

5,947

7,759

ROW

2,786

2,724

367

208

*Projection.

Note: ECA = Europe and Central Asia; NAM = North America; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; EAP = other East Asia and the Pacific; SEA = Southeast Asia; SAR = other South Asia; MNA = Middle East and North Africa; AFR = sub-Saharan Africa; ROW = rest of world.

Source: World Bank, using model projections from International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities & Trade.

 

Volume:86 Issue:06

Hide comments

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Publish