U.S. oilseed production for 2014-2015 is projected at 107.9 million tons, up 11% from 2013-2014, with higher soybean production accounting for most of the increase, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture in its May 9 WASDE report.
Soybean production is projected at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area. Yield is projected at a trend level of 45.2 bu. per acre, up 1.9 bu. from 2013. Supplies are projected at 3.78 billion bushels, up 7.4% from 2013-2014 as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks and imports.
The U.S. soybean crush for 2014-2015 is projected at 1.715 billion bushels, up 20 million from 2013-2014 mainly reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption. Despite lower prices, soybean meal exports are projected up only slightly with Argentina soybean meal exports accounting for most of the gains in global soybean meal trade. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million from 2013-2014 on record supplies and competitive prices. Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014-2015 are projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from 2013-2014, increasing the stocks-to-use ratio to 9.6%. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014-2015 is forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75/bu. compared with $13.10/bu. in 2013-2014. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $355 to $395 per short ton, compared with $485 per ton for 2013-2014. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 37 to 41 cents per pound compared with 40 cents for 2013-2014.
Global oilseed production for 2014-2015 is projected at a record 515.2 million tons, up 2.4% from 2013-2014 with increased soybean and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed, sunflowerseed and cottonseed production. Mostly due to a larger U.S. crop, global soybean production is projected at 299.8 million tons, up 5.6%.
The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 91 million tons, up 3.5 million on small gains in area and yield.
The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.0 million tons, unchanged from 2013-2014 with lower area offset by higher yields.
China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.2 million as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops.
Global production of high oil-content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is projected down 4% from 2013-2014 on reduced rapeseed production in Canada and Ukraine, and reduced sunflowerseed production in Russia, Ukraine and the European Union. With crush projected to increase 2.4%, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 94.8 million tons, up 14.6 million.