At the 2014 China Agriculture Outlook Conference, Xu Shiwei, AII Director General, released the China Agriculture Outlook Report (2014-2023), the first of its kind in China.
According to the Report, in the next decade, new-type operation system will instill more vitality to agricultural production, and agricultural development patterns will continue to transform mainly driven by and science and technology advancement.
The Report points out that agriculture in China will continue to enjoy a favorable policy environment, and the application of IT technology will bring new opportunities for agriculture.
Meanwhile, China will face rising production constraints due to scarcity of land and water resource and increasing risks in production caused by climate change. Despite that the demand growth for agricultural products will be slightly higher than production growth.
General speaking, production of major agricultural products will show a steady and upward trend in the next decade. The output of rice, wheat, sugar and vegetables will increase steadily. The output of aquatic products, beef, mutton, feed, maize, oil seeds, poultry and eggs will grow rapidly. The growth of meat production will fall slight behind consumption growth, and the import is expected to rise. The dairy production will grow by an average annual rate of 3.5%, the fastest among the products covered by the Report.
Cooking oil production will increase steadily, leading to a decline in import. Soybean import growth will slow down substantially with the annual import volume expected to reach 73 million tons in 2023. Cotton production, as affected by changing policies, will fall in terms of planting area and output while its consumption will grow slowly. There will be robust growth in sugar consumption while its production growth is expected to be mild, leading to a drop in self-sufficiency level.
Feed production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% mainly due to growth in compound feed production while feed consumption will also grow steadily.
Strong growth will be seen in demand for major agricultural products with over 2% annual growth for aquatic products, milk, maize, sugar and fruits and moderate growth for meat, wheat, rice, cotton and vegetables. China will maintain a high level of self-sufficiency in rice, wheat and maize, and achieve the goal of general sufficiency in grains and absolute security of food grain.
The demand of poultry, eggs, vegetables and fruits for processing will grow rapidly, but the trade balance of these products will remain in surplus. Aquatic production will continue to increase due to development in aquaculture.
The Report concluded that agriculture in China will continue to provide fundamental support to China's economic development, and China will make new contributions to world food security and safety.