Mexican Peso has lost 13% of its value since its strongest week of 2018.

June 21, 2018

2 Min Read
Exchange rates adjust amid trade uncertainty

The most impressive exchange rates changes this year have been devaluations relative to the U.S. dollar for the Argentinian peso and the Brazilian real, but it the Mexican peso has drawn everyone’s attention, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

The Argentinian peso has lost 24% of its value since the first of the year on a monthly basis, and the Brazilian real is 13% below January’s value. Argentina’s currency was devalued 51% in May 2018 compared to May 2017, while the Brazilian real was 13% weaker relative to the U.S. dollar.

“These weaker currency values make Argentina and Brazil more competitive on the trade front. It’s considered a headwind to U.S. grain exports for corn and soybeans,” LMIC noted. “However, with the crop problems in South America, the U.S. should still have no trouble grabbing market share in the near term.”

Mexico, on the hand, which is one of the largest destinations for U.S. agricultural products, has lost 13% of its value since the strongest week of 2018, LMIC reported, explaining, “The large drop can be attributed to the recent headlines regarding the U.S. placement of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from countries that were previously given an exemption.”

In the face of a potential 25% tariff increase from the U.S., Mexico retaliated by putting a number of U.S. products under new tariff restrictions. Consequently, the Mexican peso lost 0.85 to the dollar over the last week and has continued to devalue, LMIC said.

“This trend has sped up recently, but the Mexican peso has been moving lower since April 2018,” it added.

Despite the changes, LMIC said it’s important to recognize that day-to-day or even week-to-week changes in currency values are too short term compared to the global factors that shape them.

“Longer term, exchange rates are determined by macroeconomic forces and by sectors much bigger than the agriculture and food trade sphere,” the center said.

LMIC reported that over the same week that the peso lost 0.85, the Japanese yen lost 1.62, the Argentinian peso lost 0.89 and the South Korean won appreciated 4.00.

“The U.S. is in a favorable macro environment, supporting the U.S. dollar. GDP (gross domestic product) estimates released the last week of April indicated the U.S. grew at 2.9% in real GDP, and this week, the (Federal Reserve Bank) raised rates and shifted policy away from financial crisis recovery,” LMIC said.

Further, U.S. inflation rates have picked up, and the U.S. has entered its 10th straight year of solid economic growth, LMIC noted, adding, “In contrast to the U.S., economic growth in many other countries is now slowing.”

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