Weekly Grain Movement – Volume slips from week prior

Soybeans beat trade guess, wheat and corn fade.

Trade analyst estimates of export inspections for the week ending Oct. 26 were a mixed bag, with volume hitting the low end of wheat estimates, falling below corn estimates and rising above soybean estimates. 

Soybeans were the strongest performer for the week, with 92.1 million bushels in export inspections. That bested the average trade guess of 73 to 91 million bushels, but failed to match last week’s pace (95.0 million bushels) or the pace from this time last year (109.8 million bushels). Year-to-date volume slips further behind the pace of 2016, with 454 million total bushels compared to 501 million bushels a year ago.

China captured more than three-fourths of last week’s soybean export inspections, with 76.8 million bushels. Other top destinations included Japan (3.3 million bushels), Canada (3.0 million bushels), the Netherlands (2.4 million bushels) and Mexico (2.2 million bushels).

Weekly export inspections for corn also slipped from a week ago, with 20.4 million bushels, and failed to meet trade estimates of 73 million to 91 million bushels. Last week’s volume was 25.0 million bushels, with export inspections of 34.7 million bushels a year ago. Totals from the 2017/18 marketing year, which began September 1, are up to 199 million bushels – well behind last year’s pace of 364 million bushels.

Mexico (7.5 million bushels) and Japan (6.7 million bushels) vied for the No. 1 destination for the week ending October 26. Other top destinations for corn last week included Peru (2.9 million bushels), Colombia (1.2 million bushels) and Costa Rica (1.0 million bushels). 

Wheat bounced back from a 2017/18 marketing year low of 6.3 million bushels with a total of 11.6 million bushels in export inspections. That hit the low end of the average trade guess, which was 11 million to 18 million bushels. It was also lower than the rate needed to meet USDA’s forecast (18.3 million bushels per week at this point). Year-to-date totals (408 million bushels) are slightly below this time last year (428 million bushels).

Top destinations were fairly evenly split among South Korea (1.9 million bushels), Iraq (1.8 million bushels), Taiwan (1.7 million bushels), Mexico (1.3 million bushels), Ecuador (1.2 million bushels) and the Dominican Republic (1.2 million bushels).

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