Weekly Export Sales: Corn keeps punching above trade estimates

Soybean and wheat exports also came in higher than industry expectations.

Is the market underestimating corn’s export momentum right now? For several weeks in a row, corn export sales have exceeded trade estimates. Soybean and wheat export sales continue to deliver pedestrian results, meantime. 

For the week ending February 8, corn notched 77.7 million bushels of old crop sales and another 3.8 million bushels of new crop sales. That bested the prior week’s total of 69.7 million bushels and was also moderately ahead of trade estimates of 51.2 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to reach USDA’s forecast is now down to 21.8 million bushels.

Corn export shipments totaled 34.0 million bushels last week – 10% lower than the prior week but 7% ahead of the four-week average. Japan was the No. 1 destination, with 11.5 million bushels. Other top destinations included Mexico (9.4 million bushels), Bangladesh (2.4 million bushels), the Philippines (2.3 million bushels) and Colombia (1.4 million bushels).

Soybean exports found 23.5 million bushels in old crop sales and another 7.2 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 30.8 million bushels. That bested last week’s total of 27.6 million bushels, as well as trade estimates, which had set the bar relatively low at 23.9 million bushels. The rate needed to reach USDA’s forecast remains well within reach, now at 15.6 million bushels.

Soybean export shipments were significantly higher, at 50.5 million bushels. That was 6% below the prior week but 10% ahead of the four-week average. China remains the runaway No. 1 destination, with 26.4 million bushels. Other top destinations included Mexico (3.5 million bushels), the Netherlands (3.1 million bushels), Germany (2.9 million bushels) and Pakistan (2.6 million bushels).

Wheat exports saw 11.4 million bushels in old crop sales and 4.1 million bushels in new crop sales, for a total of 15.5 million bushels. That total squeaked by last week’s total of 15.3 million bushels, and it beat trade estimates of 11.9 million bushels. It also stayed ahead of the weekly rate needed to reach USDA’s forecasts, which are now at 11.3 million bushels.

Wheat export shipments landed at 18.1 million bushels – 5% above the prior week and 10% higher than the four-week average. Japan came in as the No. 1 destination, with 3.8 million bushels. Other top destinations last week included Mexico (3.6 million bushels), China (2.3 million bushels), South Korea (1.8 million bushels) and Nigeria (1.7 million bushels). 

Sorghum export sales of nearly 5.0 million bushels bested the prior week by 73% but still landed 24% lower than the four-week average. China picked up about 90% of the total volume, with the remainder headed to Japan.

Cotton net sales of 364,800 bales trended 9% lower than a week ago, but were 39% higher than the prior four-week average.

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