Beef: Seasonally, carcass weights are making their move higher and will continue to do so over the next five months. Typically, carcass weights find their peaks in mid- to late fall, climbing an average of 58 lb. from low to high across the past five years. If this trend holds during 2018, the increase would put this year's highs nearly even with last year's early-winter peak. From a calculated five-year seasonal perspective, carcass weights would be expected to peak in mid-November near 885 lb. -- almost 10 lb. over the same time a year earlier but just 3 lb. over the December peak last year. The summer rise in carcass weights last year was relatively abrupt, outstripping seasonal expectations, and it may keep the year-over-year differences slim to nil all the way into early fall. Supplies of market-ready cattle are expected to thin heading into the fall but may not tighten beyond packer needs. With supplies readily available, weights are expected to continue rising, widening the year-over-year differences and continuing to add pounds of beef into the production landscape.

Pork: The sow market saw seasonal increases again this week. The sow harvest over the next 45 days is expected to be the tightest relative to the forecast for the remainder of the year. Harvest levels should be flat for this time versus current levels, which puts price risk to the upside as the industry is finally seeing some lift from breakfast and dinner-type sausages. Bacon is expected to stay promoted for the next few weeks, which should keep demand focused on bacon rather than breakfast sausage for the near term, helping to avoid the price spike seen last year. Sow harvest certainly could pick up in the fall if producers thin the herd slightly, but that may not be the case as sow barns are still being refitted and built, with producers confident in the continued expansion mode.

Poultry: The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released estimates of poultry production in the latest “Poultry Slaughter” report. Monthly young chickens harvested during May came in at a total of 792.8 million head. This was up nearly 13 million head from the Informa Economics IEG projected harvest, up 1.3% from the same month a year earlier and the largest same-month total on record. Average liveweights have been on the rise as well this year, averaging a 1.2% increase from the prior year during the first four months of 2018. USDA reported that average liveweights came in slightly above expectations for May as well, at 6.25 lb., up 1.1% from a year earlier. With both harvested totals and liveweights showing gains from the prior year, ready-to-cook broiler meat production was up an estimated 2.3% from the prior year at 3.73 billion lb. -- a record for May and just shy of the all-time record of 3.764 billion lb. established during August 2017. May represents the fourth same-month record meat production month this year.

For a more detailed look at the weekly forecasts for the various meat sectors and meat cuts, subscribe to the "Meat Price Outlook." Contact Susan Dahlgren at [email protected] for more information.