Spring wheat’s condition dropped to 55% good/excellent from the previous week’s 62%. The 55% was at least 5 points under many trade forecasts with declines noted in the Dakotas and Montana, where hot, dry conditions affected the crop.
Winter wheat’s condition dropped slightly to 49% good/excellent from last week’s 50%.
Corn improved to 3 points to 68% good/excellent in USDA’s weekly progress report, helped by gains in most of the key states including Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Nebraska. The 68% topped a number of trade forecasts. USDA will release the season’s first soybean condition rating next week.
“The big reduction in spring wheat ratings Monday suggest yields are down more than 2 bpa on average, with our models in a range from 45.8 to 46.8 bpa,” said Bryce Knorr, Farm Futures senior grain analyst. “Coupled with a smaller reduction in winter wheat conditions, it appears dry weather on the Plains has cut 33 million bushels off the size of the all-wheat crop, lowering our estimate to 1.794 billion bushels.”
The increase in corn ratings added about two-thirds of a bushel to yield potential, said Knorr. He calculated yields between 169.5 and 171.8 bpa to put the average right at 170.7 bpa, the statistical trend USDA has used this spring.
“No change to initial 2017 corn or soybean production estimates are likely in Friday’s USDA report. Yields in the Dakotas suffered due to the same dry weather than affected spring wheat yields there,” he said.
In other tallies, corn planting reached 96% versus the 97% average, emergence was 86% versus 87% average, soybean planting was 83% versus the 79% average and emergence 58% versus the 59% average.
“Statewide there were six days suitable for fieldwork, which were the most Iowa has had all season. Field activities for the week included planting and re-planting, applying herbicides, and harvesting the first crop of alfalfa hay,” the Iowa report said.
Warm, dry days helped Indiana’s crops, which had been stressed by cool, wet conditions. Despite the drier conditions, the state said some fields still had standing water.
The nation’s winter wheat was 87% headed versus the 85% average and crop rating slipped 1 point to 49% good/excellent. The season’s first nationwide winter wheat harvest tally put the harvest at 10% versus the 7% average. Most of that harvest was in the south with Texas at 58%, Oklahoma at 25% and Arkansas at 28%.
The Kansas weekly report did provide an indication for the wheat’s decline in condition. However, last week custom harvesters said wheat streak mosaic was a problem in many fields.
Spring wheat’s 55% good/excellent rating compared with 79% a year ago. North Dakota’s crop slipped 10 points to 52% good/excellent.